Punters’ Percentages Criteria • Handicap winners that had a prep run - 96%• Open Graded winners aged 8 or younger - 87%• Graded winners that finished first, second or third last time - 81%• Maiden Hurdle winners sent off 9/2 or shorter - 76%• Grade 1 Novice Chase winners aged 6 - 71%• Edward O’Grady-trained runners placed in graded novices - 54%• Meade & Mullins-trained horses placed in maiden hurdles - 44%• Dessie Hughes-trained horses first or second in graded races - 43%• Graded winners without a run since October - 3%• Handicap winners older than 8 - 2%Graded RacesWith 9 black type races over the 4 days, Leopardstown provides extensive opportunities for top-class horses in both the novice and open categories. The key here is to focus on the younger horses; in the past 7 years just graded winner was aged in double figures and that was Istabraq in the 2001 Festival Hurdle. The three-time Champion Hurdle made heavy weather of landing odds of 4/11 by a head on that occasion and when we consider the only horses to win graded races as 9yos were also superstars called Moscow Flyer, Beef Or Salmon and Limestone (all returned odds-on), it seems sensible to focus on the 8yos and younger who have won 27 of the 31 open graded races run since 2001. Such figures would be a negative against the likes of The Listener and War Of Attrition (both 9yos) in the Lexus and Brave Inca in the Festival Hurdle, though it should noted that Colm Murphy’s veteran has a superlative record at the course.A recent run is also pretty much a necessity with only Istabraq and Rosaker managing to win a graded event without having had a run since October; 57 of the 59 graded winners (novices and open) had an outing of some sort in the previous three months. There are certainly no Istabraqs among the entries for this year’s big events and Neptune Collonges, the likely favourite for the Lexus, could have plenty on his plate on what will be his first run since Punchestown. Big Zeb, who looks sure to be among the market leaders in the Dial-A-Bet Chase, returns off a similar absence.Dessie Hughes is a force to be reckoned with in all graded races – since 2001, 10 of his 23 runners have finished first or second with the likes of Central House and Grangeclare Lark serving him well. Among the novices, Edward O’Grady is a name to note with his 13 runners yielding 3 winners, 3 seconds and a third. In the two Grade 1 novice chases, the Durkan New Homes over two miles and the Knight Frank over three, it’s paid to concentrate on six-year-olds. They’ve won 10 of the last 14 runnings of both races and all but one since 2003. 6yos of note for this year’s races include staying types Cooldine and Trafford Lad and the speedier Made In Taipan (a winner at the meeting last year) and Forpadydeplasterer. Keep an eye on the placed horses from the Royal Bond if they take their chance in the recently upgraded Future Champions Novice Hurdle on the 27th – 4 of the last 7 winners finished placed in the Fairyhouse event earlier in the month. This year’s renewal of the Fairyhouse race was run at a very slow pace and it would be no surprise to see Donnas Palm, a national hunt type who was particularly inconvenienced by how the race was run, reverse form with the winner Hurricane Fly. Maiden Hurdles Thinking outside the box is crucial to backing winners but it’s not always wise to be too clever and maiden hurdles at Leopardstown are a case in point; recently, finding the winner has been an object lesson in sticking to the obvious. All 5 of last year’s maiden hurdle winners were sent off at the head of the market and none had finished worse than third on their last outing. This may well be an extreme example but past trends also illustrate the benefits of sticking with in-form, fancied runners. Of the 34 maiden hurdles run at the Christmas meeting since 2001, only 1 winner was returned at bigger than 10/1 and 26 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter. 23 of the 34 winners had finished in the first four over hurdles last time out. Given the size and competitive nature of the fields, it is sensible to give classy bumper graduates making their hurdles debut the swerve – they almost always lack the seasoning for races like this and only 1 of the 24 fancied (i.e. sent off at single figure prices) bumper horses debuting over hurdles since 2001 managed to win. Avoiding horses that were given what are politely termed ‘educational rides’ last time is another good idea as such ‘eye-catchers’ are invariably over-bet and don’t have the form to back it up.In the trainers’ corner, it’s no surprise that Noel Meade (5 wins and 6 places from 25 runners) and Willie Mullins (3 wins and 5 places from 18 runners) do well. Realt Dubh looks a likely type from the Meade yard this time around – he caught a tartar in subsequent Grade 1 winner Mikael D’Haguenet on his hurdles bow and is suitably obvious here. Zaarito, placed in the Champion Bumper in March, could well follow in the footsteps of a similar type in Sophocles who went one better than his second place on debut when landing a maiden at last year’s meeting.HandicapsWith just 7 handicaps due to be run over the 4 days, it could be said that such races take a back seat at the meeting though each and every race of this type is fiercely contested. The same basic tenets used for graded races apply here: concentrate on younger horses that have the benefit of a recent outing. Of the 47 handicaps run at the Festival since 2001, just one was won by a horse older than 8. It’s a similar story with regard to a having a prep run – only Mansony, a subsequent dual Grade 1 winner who had upwards of 20lbs in hand, could land a handicap on his seasonal reappearance.Punters looking for a single handicap with strong back patterns could do a lot worse than focus on the 2m1f handicap chase on St. Stephen’s Day. All of the last 7 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter, were aged between 6 and 8 and had finished first or second if they got around last time out.
Posted by Tony Keenan
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Trends for John Durkan Chase courtesy Tony Keenan
9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 9.- All but 1 of the last 10 winners was rated 150 or higher prior to winning this.- Buck Rogers caused a shock (and busted more than a few trends) when landing this at 16/1 in 1999 but none of the other winners since 1998 was returned any bigger than 7/1. 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 2/1 or shorter.- Every winner since 1998 had run in the previous 5 weeks. - The last 8 winners had run either once or twice in the current season. - While 2 of the recent winners failed to complete on their most recent outing, the other 8 all finished in the first three last time out.- 6 of the last 10 winners had won at Punchestown. - All of the winners in the last decades had won a race over this intermediate trip, i.e. between 19 and 21 furlongs. 8 were multiple winners over this sort of distance. - Grade 1 form is important if not crucial – 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a top level contest, all over fences.
Posted by Tony Keenan
Posted by Tony Keenan
Trends for Paddy Power Hcp Chase courtesy Tony Keenan
Cane Brake won the 2006 renewal off 11-3 (Adrian Joyce claimed 7lbs) but his weight-carrying performance was more the exception than the rule; 8 of the last 9 winners carried no more than 10-8 before jockeys’ claims.- All winners since 1998 were aged between 6 and 8 – 2 were 6yos while the 7yos and 8yos won four apiece. - Only 1 horse rated higher than 123 has won this in the past 10 years.- Newbay Prop was a rare out-of-form winner of the race last term when landing the spoils off the back being pulled up in the Porterstown; his trainer Tony Martin has his own unique methods and all of the other 9 winners in the past decade finished no worse than 5th on their last start. 7 of those 9 finished first, second or third.- The Troytown would seem the obvious place to start in the search for the winner of this race but Navan provides a much sterner test of stamina than this speed-favouring track – just 1 of the last 10 winners ran in the Troytown that season though 8 placed horses ran in the Navan event. The Cork National has been a better guide to winners at least with 3 of the last 7 Irish-trained winners hitting the frame at Cork before winning here. - All of the winners in the last decade had run at least once since October.- Unexposed horses rule here – the last 11 winners all had 7 or fewer runs in handicap chases.- None of the winners since 1998 had more than 3 seasons chasing experience. - 4 winners since 1998 had already won at the track while 2 more had placed form at Leopardstown.- Stamina isn’t as important as one might think as 4 of the last 10 winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had won over at least 2m5f though.
Posted by Tony Keenan
Posted by Tony Keenan
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Troytown Hcp Chase Navan - Trends courtesy Tony Keenan
The last 9 winners carried no more than 10-9 to victory. In the same period, all winners were in receipt of at least 18lbs from the top-weight.- All of the winners in the last decade were aged between 6 and 9.- Fancied horses dominate affairs in the feature of the Navan jumps season. Only 1 winner since 1998 was returned at a double-figure price (Cane Brake at 10/1 in 2006) and 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 11/2 or shorter. - I’d tend to be against summer jumpers here – just 1 of the last 9 winners ran had run more than twice since Punchestown and that was the ludicrously well-handicapped Cloudy Bays who won this off 119 but finished the season rated 152.- Staying chasers often need an outing to get themselves fit and preference would be for horses with prep run under their belt – with the exception of Lyreen Wonder, who won this off long breaks in 2000 & 2001, the other winners in the last decade had acquitted themselves well in the previous 2 months.- Ryhane had had 12 handicap chase runs prior to landing the 1998 renewal but since then all of the winners had run 9 or fewer times in handicaps over fences.- Second-season chasers have won 7 of the last 9 runnings with the 2 exceptions being lightly-raced third-season chasers.- Respect previous course form. 6 of the last 8 winners had already won at Navan while another had finished second.- While proven stamina over 3 miles isn’t totally essential, contenders should have at least suggested they are likely to get home. All of the winners since 1998 had won over at least 22f while 7 had won over the race distance
Draw
ASCOTStalls 1-3 were 0-86 over 5f and 6f in 2007. Over 7f stalls 1-3 were 1-47 (Candidato Roy was the only winner when he raced solo against the stands rail).
AYR31 of the 41 handicaps run on the round course in 2007 went to a horse from the top half of the draw.
BATHSince 2005 in sprint handicaps with 12 or more runners, stalls 1-3 are 0-71 (six of those started favourite at 3-1 or shorter and all six were unplaced). Since 2000 in sprint handicaps with 16 or more runners, stalls 1-4 are 1-121.
CHESTERBacking every horse drawn in stall 1 in every race at Chester since 2000 would have produced 109 wins from 555 runs and a level stakes profit of 67.56 points. The distances punters should concentrate on are at both extremes - 5f (31-125, + 73.62) and 1m4f and beyond (25-114, +44.61).
EPSOMIn double-figure fields at 1m 4f only Eshwarah and Oath have won from stalls 1 or 2 since 1999 (2-115 in total).
GOODWOODStall 1 is only 2-82 on the straight course (5f and 6f) over the last two years; the two winners both won again next time.
LEICESTERIn all 6f races run since 2000 stall 1 has record of 25 wins from 150 runs and a profit of 23.65 points.
NEWBURYThe winner made all in only two of the 57 handicaps run at Newbury in 2007.
SANDOWNSince 1998 the record of all favourites from double-figure draws in handicaps at 7f or 1m is just 5 wins from 45 runs (in other words high-drawn horses tend to be overbet in big fields at these distances).
WARWICKStill arguably the most dramatic and yet least-known draw-bias stat around, despite being highlighted in this column two years ago. Since 2000 backing stalls 1 and 2 blindly in all races at 1m+ has produced 89 wins from 613 runs and a level stakes profit of 495.71pts. Even allowing for the fact that one of the winners (Beechy Bank in 2002) started at 200-1, this is still an enormous profit for a very simple system. It has shown a profit in each of the last seven years
AYR31 of the 41 handicaps run on the round course in 2007 went to a horse from the top half of the draw.
BATHSince 2005 in sprint handicaps with 12 or more runners, stalls 1-3 are 0-71 (six of those started favourite at 3-1 or shorter and all six were unplaced). Since 2000 in sprint handicaps with 16 or more runners, stalls 1-4 are 1-121.
CHESTERBacking every horse drawn in stall 1 in every race at Chester since 2000 would have produced 109 wins from 555 runs and a level stakes profit of 67.56 points. The distances punters should concentrate on are at both extremes - 5f (31-125, + 73.62) and 1m4f and beyond (25-114, +44.61).
EPSOMIn double-figure fields at 1m 4f only Eshwarah and Oath have won from stalls 1 or 2 since 1999 (2-115 in total).
GOODWOODStall 1 is only 2-82 on the straight course (5f and 6f) over the last two years; the two winners both won again next time.
LEICESTERIn all 6f races run since 2000 stall 1 has record of 25 wins from 150 runs and a profit of 23.65 points.
NEWBURYThe winner made all in only two of the 57 handicaps run at Newbury in 2007.
SANDOWNSince 1998 the record of all favourites from double-figure draws in handicaps at 7f or 1m is just 5 wins from 45 runs (in other words high-drawn horses tend to be overbet in big fields at these distances).
WARWICKStill arguably the most dramatic and yet least-known draw-bias stat around, despite being highlighted in this column two years ago. Since 2000 backing stalls 1 and 2 blindly in all races at 1m+ has produced 89 wins from 613 runs and a level stakes profit of 495.71pts. Even allowing for the fact that one of the winners (Beechy Bank in 2002) started at 200-1, this is still an enormous profit for a very simple system. It has shown a profit in each of the last seven years
Friday, November 14, 2008
Angles
Don’t bet when the going changes. If the going changes from firm to soft, keep your money in your pocket. Nothing upsets form more than a major change in ground conditions.
Follow up-and-coming jockeys. Look out for promising apprentices.
Don’t chase your losses. There’s always another day.
Don’t bet heavily when there’s been a sudden change in the track condition.
Don’t back out of form trainers or jockeys
One vital ingredient for successful punting is that you’ve got to be confident that your selection can win. Horses with good recent form, preferably winning form, running against limited opposition within their class, when at their peak, progressing or improving, do win most races, all year round.
“They are a constant source of winners for anyone to exploit. Almost every winner worth backing falls into this category which is broadened even further by the four pros: PROVEN, PROGRESSIVE, PROMISING and PROFITABLE.”
It is sufficient to be a master of one game rather than try to learn two or three, as long as you retire to the side lines when the game you know is no longer being played.” The same principal applies in gambling.
Get an EDGE & stick to using it. What is your edge. What do I know that gives me advantage over others. Have a game plan & stick to it.
On a bad run take a break & get away from racing for at least a week.
Each way - an admission that dont really expect to win.
In exchange betting 75% of the volume is in the last 5 minutes B4 the off spread pretty evenly but at highest 1-2 mins b4 off.
Follow up-and-coming jockeys. Look out for promising apprentices.
Don’t chase your losses. There’s always another day.
Don’t bet heavily when there’s been a sudden change in the track condition.
Don’t back out of form trainers or jockeys
One vital ingredient for successful punting is that you’ve got to be confident that your selection can win. Horses with good recent form, preferably winning form, running against limited opposition within their class, when at their peak, progressing or improving, do win most races, all year round.
“They are a constant source of winners for anyone to exploit. Almost every winner worth backing falls into this category which is broadened even further by the four pros: PROVEN, PROGRESSIVE, PROMISING and PROFITABLE.”
It is sufficient to be a master of one game rather than try to learn two or three, as long as you retire to the side lines when the game you know is no longer being played.” The same principal applies in gambling.
Get an EDGE & stick to using it. What is your edge. What do I know that gives me advantage over others. Have a game plan & stick to it.
On a bad run take a break & get away from racing for at least a week.
Each way - an admission that dont really expect to win.
In exchange betting 75% of the volume is in the last 5 minutes B4 the off spread pretty evenly but at highest 1-2 mins b4 off.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
All Weather racing
SOUTHWELL
With its long straights and sweeping bends it is ideal for relentless gallopers. However the surface can be deep and testing particularly after dry or frosty weather. Subsequently Southwell rides the slowest of the all weather tracks and tired horses often get caught. The kickback is considerable and races up to a mile usually develop from the front. In longer races it is more difficult to make all the running. In fact in the first 125 starts over 1m following the refurbishment, stall one only won once, a strike rate of 0.8%. In races from 6f to 1m consider laying any fancied horse in stall one. On the 5f straight, horses drawn low have a significant advantage. They get the faster part of the track over the first few furlongs and can then grab the favoured middle of the track when they join the round course. At Southwell if frost is forecast they harrow deeper which slows the track down considerably. When the track has been rolled after rain it compacts and rides fast.
LINGFIELD
The contours of the track favour well balanced horses who can run down hill. To lead 5f Lingfield need a well balanced horse as the final bend can cause to slow horses at vital point. From 2.5f out you have to be building up momentum, cant afford to get checked in this period & must get a clear run, often by keeping wide. By being on th inside leading on this run you can be too tight to last bend & not able to run at full pace. At the 2.5f point (start of fnal bend) you need to be at least 1 horse off the rail & ideally 2. Because theygo a slow pace in all races here you need to be able to sprint the last 2.5f. Jockeys who ride this particular coarse well are important. In a maiden race the ideal scenario is a mid- wide draw, break well, settle just off lead & not on rail, wind up from 2.5f out & lead in straight.
AT ALL DISTANCES IT IS VITAL TO GET A CLEAR RUN FROM 2.5F OUT
5f
Draw - up to 8 runners - Adv to middle (1 & outer both negative)
8-10 runners - Adv to middle (2-6 best)
In 8 races (6mdns & 2 hcps) with 5-9 runners no stall 1 & no outer stall won. 4 Led & all races prom - hard to come from behind.
The sharpest 5f & you want a 5f horse - prev exp at 5f positive
Plenty of winners make all but you certainly want to be prominent. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
6f
The race almost starts on a bend so it takes 1f for the horses to reach top speed.
Draw - up to 8 runners -1 & outer negative
8-10 runners - Outer negative, 1 negative.
11+ runners - No adv ( 1& 2 slight negative)
From 18 races (10mdns & 8 hcps) only 1 horse won from 1 draw & that in a 5 runner field & 1 winner from outer stall.
Can come from behind & make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight. Form over 6f at Lingfield is a positive.
In 6f Hcps from Nov - march for 2yos becoming 3yos Favs are 25/51. Dist Winners who started Fav are 18/37. Coarse winners who started fav are 16/28. C&D winners who started fav are 10/19. Fillies against colts who started fav are 4/10.
7f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. High slightly favoured
11+ run Adv to stalls 3-10 (1&2 & 11+ negative)
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
8f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. No other adv
11+ run 1 negative. Adv to top half
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured in mdns. Can come from behind & not easy to make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
1m2f
Usually small fields & often a very slow pace.
In maidens can often dictate gallop in front. Can come from any positions & often do in hcps where v small fields prevail. Again off rail & momentum into straight are important. Because these are not true run events its best to be bred for a shorter trip so as not to be caught flat footed.
SURFACE
Never back a horse who has not proven himself over course and distance. Although four of the five tracks have a polytrack surface it would be wrong to assume that a horse will be equally at home on any of them. Wolverhampton is tight, Great Leighs has sweeping bends, Lingfield is part down hill with a tight bend and a camber and Kempton is right handed. They are all polytrack, but they are all different.
KEMPTON
5f
The coarse is the inner ircuit. As they race on a bend for half the race & the straight is very short, LEADING is a big advantage as they wont o flat out & leader can then quicken in str. in 22 hcps of 7 of less runners 11 made all, 9 tracked & 2 came from rear (they both won again within next 2 runs).
To lead the draw is an advantage with 10 winners on inner, 3 next door, 4 next to that, then 3 in next stalls & 3 on outer.
OXOXNext I looked at what the Americans call the OXOX phenomenon. I call this the zig zag pattern because that is what it would look like on a graph. Some horses produce alternate high and low speed figures but are unable to produce consecutive good or bad performances. It is as if they bounce after every race. This pattern is seen most often in 3 year olds. It is surprising how many horses fall into this category.
EXAMPLES OF ZIG ZAG SPEED FIGURES
J M W TURNER 0064 W 7F0 67*L 5F 076 W 6Fi 67 S 6F 076 L 6F0 66 S 6FKINABALU00000i 61 L 7F 0i49 W 1M 054 W 1M1 i49 L 1M20 60 L 1M 0LADY NATILDAii 58 W 5F 042 W 6F0 66 W 6F 047 W 6F 057*W 6FLEGAL SET 0000i058 L 6F 0i53 L 6F 0077*L 7F 0i49 S 6F0 71 L 6F 060 L 6FMY MAITE 00000i66 L1M2 75 L1M2 i62 L 1M2 077*L 1M2PROSPECT COV ii29 W1M1 59 S 7F036 W 1M0 i57 W 1M1o 37 S 1M3 TASS HEEL 00o0ii61 L 2M 0i67 W 1M7 o62 S 1M6 067*S 1M60 58 L 1M50WHITE PLAINS i51 W1M70 60*W1M4 45 L 1M5 66*S 1M6 42 W 1M4 YALLA LARA00ii 63 L 7F 0070 L 1M 058 L 7F0 65 L 7F 059 L 1M 071*L 7F
If MY MAITEs next run was 1m2f at Lingfield you would expect him to produce a rating in the mid 70s. Conversely on his next outing KINABALU will probably return a figure around the fifty mark.
THREE TIME IMPROVERSThis title can be misleading because the horse may only have improved twice. The criteria is that a horse has three consecutively improving speed figures. For example PRINCE PROSPECT 67 65 57. When a horse produces this sequence how will it fare in its next race? Like me you would probably expect a further improvement in the majority of cases. However you will probably be as surprised as I was to find out this was not the case. An American study showed that only 25% continued to improve, 4% repeated their previous performance and a whopping 71% produced a lower figure.These statistics are depressing to say the least. I was hoping they would provide a valuable pointer to future winners. However that particular study was carried out in America where they have much more racing on many differing tracks. How would the figures stack up in this country with limited racing and only three courses.After carrying out the same research on our 3554 horses I found 622 occasions when this pattern occurred. The question was, on their next run would these horses fare any better than their American counterparts. Sadly the answer was, not a chance. They did even worse. The outcome was devastating. Of the 622 horses in the sample the results were as follows :-
143 IMPROVED 23%19 0RAN THE SAME 3%460 RETURNED LOWER FIG 74%
Of the 143 horses who continued to improve only 22 of them won (15%). And that is only a miserable 3.5% of the 622 horses in the sample.What about horses who ran up three consecutive declining figures, would they continue to deteriorate or would they perform a reverse bounce. The American study showed that 32% continued their decline, 4% ran the same figure and 64% improved. Again I looked at our 3554 horses for comparisons. On the 567 occasions where this pattern emerged :-
153 CONTINUED DECLINE 27%180 RAN THE SAME 3%396 IMPROVED 70%Although 70% of horses improved following their three race decline they did not improve enough to make them worth backing.
In US racing they are interested in speed figures, pace & track (draw & fastest strip) bias.
Who would lead, how fast would they go, how many front runners, where is the fastest strip on the track, is track favouring front runners or fast finishers.
Turf horses suited to AW have following profile - holds a prom position b4 onepaced in last 2f.
Majority races run at strong early pace as jockeys recognise importance of good early position, by halfway field spread out, and that means a clear run in likely.
Horses who appear to finish fast are merely galloping on & catching tired horses.
Winning distances are greater because horses arent just sprinting for 3f.
AW races barely affected by the weight carried.
TURF
Comparison of turf & AW racing for handicapping - in turf races the field were generally more bunched up than in AW race. Key factor in turf races is the finishing kick and speed figures have limited usefulness because they measure horses overall performance rather than final fraction. Hence Mordins new 2yo ratings which use last 3f. Also all AW races are around a bend rather than straight so that the field are more spaced out from earlier. Speed figures for turf are hindered by rain during meeting, headwind, slow early pace & moving rails.
When assessing past performance as a guide to future the subsequent race should be over same distance or not more than 1 fur further. Performance of most hcp class horses on turf is very distance sensitive.
A figure be it speed figure or rating tells you what the horse did last time. it doesnt automatically predict what will do next time. Dont expect horse to reproduce his good figure in a different type of race - hcp , claimer, mdn.
Most horses can produce similar rating at more than 1 distance.
The fastest horse cant win if hes badly drawn or if likely pace wont suit.
If an apprentice rode when good performance was achieved consider whether his claim was an important factor especially if not riding next time.
Other doubts to consider - ground, nature of track (R/H, L/H, Flat, Undulating, Straight, Bend) & size of field.
Track bias
Is it best to be on inside rail or outside & how is this influenced by stalls position & draw.
Is the track favouring front runners or strong finishers.
On sand the front runner doesnt get swamped because the horses in behind cant produce the same sort of acceleration they do on turf. They also avoid kickback. Explains why Lingfield favoured by good trainers as it replicates turf - no kickback & those that finish win
Pace
Fast - usually results in all the front runners finishing well btn.
Average - runners bunched but not falling over each other . Winner can come from behind or front & form likely to work out.
Slow - noone wants to lead, several pulling hard, positions changing frequently. If slow pace persists for 2 or 3 furlongs then horses to the fore have advantage when pace quickens. Results likely to be false.
Draw
Concentrate on recent results
What is draw adv over coarse & distance & how important is a good draw.
What is ideal way to ride this particular horse.
Does the draw make it easier or harder for jockey to execute tactics.
Goodwood = At 3f pole in races over 7f+ the horse in front won 50% of time in 1997.
Claiming races
Concentrate on horses at the top.
Group races
Weight penalties for previous pattern success can be important - extra 3-5lb significant
Be wary of Grp 1 winners in lesser events using as prep.
Hcp Chases
Weight doesnt matter.
Young chasers are best.
Suited by track & trip (R/H, L/H, Flat or Undulating).
Good jumpers in form.
Handicapping
The effect that weight has on slowing down a racehorse is that for each pound carried in a race over 5 furlongs (1,000 metres) it will slow a horse by over two feet (a neck), and in a 2-mile race (3,200 metres) by about eight feet (one length). So 30lbs at a sprint distance, at 3lbs per length, equals 10 lengths and 30lbs over 2 miles, at one pound per length, would be 30 lengths. At distances around a mile (1,600 metres) the accepted conversion is that one length equals 2lbs and at intermediate (10 furlongs/2,000 metres) and middle distances (12 furlongs/2,400 metres) one length equals 1.5 lbs.
These weight-to-distance equivalents are by no means 100 per cent exact but they still provide a good guide in helping to assess the merits of the racehorse. They will, for example, be altered by extreme ground conditions. The handicapper would be fully entitled to use the 3lbs per length over 5 furlongs on fast ground but it would almost certainly be inaccurate to use the same equivalent if the ground was very soft or heavy. He may choose to use 2lbs or even 1.5lbs per length in the latter case. This would be up to the individual concerned and he would base his decision on previous similar extreme conditions, with possible reference to average race times.
Distance
Pounds per Length
5f (1,000 metres)
3
6f (1,200 metres)
2.5
7f-9f (1,400-1,800 metres)
2
10-12f (2,000-2,400 metres)
1.5
12f plus (2,400 metres plus)
1
In flat handicaps the higher weights dont have any more effect than lighter weights (the difference between 9st & 10st is the same as 8st & 9st.
The weights carried are all as a result of the horse producing a performance that merited that rating. In other words all horses are capable of running to their handicap. So in order to win a hcp what you want is a horse who is going to run better than his rating. Which is why horses with few hcp runs win most hcps. What you want is an improver - someone who is better than have shown. You also need as many factors as possible in you favour (Draw, Going, Distance, Jockey, Track, Stable in form, Horse at his peak, and the class of horses he is running againt)
Factors affecting results
When assessing riders on the way up it is often a good idea to spend a period of time focusing on their tactical as well as riding abilities. Cardinal sins in my book, are how many times they get involved a disputed battle for the lead, rather than sit passively outside a leader, how deep they are on the track, do they look for cover and how do they look to overcome tricky draws.
The battle for the lead issue revolves around what I call the ‘David Bedford’ syndrome. Bedford used to run world class times in lower grade athletics meets where he was out on his own competing only against the clock. Stick him in a world class field however and even though his times were competitive if he was taken on for the lead it all went pear shaped. It was as if as well as the physical energy expended in running at a certain speed there was also a mental drain if he was forced to ‘race’ from an early stage as opposed to getting into a nice unpestered rhythm. I have always felt this applies to horses who even if they are going at the same physical speed seem to find a disputed lead far more draining than an uncontested one. Jockeys who realise this and don’t get hooked up in battles for the lead but instead adopt a passive stance which helps tilt the advantage in favour of the leaders, are clearly sound tactically rather than those who when given instructions to lead will press on to fulfill those orders even if they end up setting up for the closers.
The inside rail at Southwell is on e off the clearest advantages of track bias that is present on a regular basis and hence it is easy to measure riders against. Some jockeys however are capable of spotting more subtle nuances which may favour front runners if the rail is good or closers if the centre is quicker. The ability to flex tactics to capitalise on this is also a handy asset for the tactically astute rider.
With its long straights and sweeping bends it is ideal for relentless gallopers. However the surface can be deep and testing particularly after dry or frosty weather. Subsequently Southwell rides the slowest of the all weather tracks and tired horses often get caught. The kickback is considerable and races up to a mile usually develop from the front. In longer races it is more difficult to make all the running. In fact in the first 125 starts over 1m following the refurbishment, stall one only won once, a strike rate of 0.8%. In races from 6f to 1m consider laying any fancied horse in stall one. On the 5f straight, horses drawn low have a significant advantage. They get the faster part of the track over the first few furlongs and can then grab the favoured middle of the track when they join the round course. At Southwell if frost is forecast they harrow deeper which slows the track down considerably. When the track has been rolled after rain it compacts and rides fast.
LINGFIELD
The contours of the track favour well balanced horses who can run down hill. To lead 5f Lingfield need a well balanced horse as the final bend can cause to slow horses at vital point. From 2.5f out you have to be building up momentum, cant afford to get checked in this period & must get a clear run, often by keeping wide. By being on th inside leading on this run you can be too tight to last bend & not able to run at full pace. At the 2.5f point (start of fnal bend) you need to be at least 1 horse off the rail & ideally 2. Because theygo a slow pace in all races here you need to be able to sprint the last 2.5f. Jockeys who ride this particular coarse well are important. In a maiden race the ideal scenario is a mid- wide draw, break well, settle just off lead & not on rail, wind up from 2.5f out & lead in straight.
AT ALL DISTANCES IT IS VITAL TO GET A CLEAR RUN FROM 2.5F OUT
5f
Draw - up to 8 runners - Adv to middle (1 & outer both negative)
8-10 runners - Adv to middle (2-6 best)
In 8 races (6mdns & 2 hcps) with 5-9 runners no stall 1 & no outer stall won. 4 Led & all races prom - hard to come from behind.
The sharpest 5f & you want a 5f horse - prev exp at 5f positive
Plenty of winners make all but you certainly want to be prominent. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
6f
The race almost starts on a bend so it takes 1f for the horses to reach top speed.
Draw - up to 8 runners -1 & outer negative
8-10 runners - Outer negative, 1 negative.
11+ runners - No adv ( 1& 2 slight negative)
From 18 races (10mdns & 8 hcps) only 1 horse won from 1 draw & that in a 5 runner field & 1 winner from outer stall.
Can come from behind & make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight. Form over 6f at Lingfield is a positive.
In 6f Hcps from Nov - march for 2yos becoming 3yos Favs are 25/51. Dist Winners who started Fav are 18/37. Coarse winners who started fav are 16/28. C&D winners who started fav are 10/19. Fillies against colts who started fav are 4/10.
7f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. High slightly favoured
11+ run Adv to stalls 3-10 (1&2 & 11+ negative)
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
8f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. No other adv
11+ run 1 negative. Adv to top half
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured in mdns. Can come from behind & not easy to make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
1m2f
Usually small fields & often a very slow pace.
In maidens can often dictate gallop in front. Can come from any positions & often do in hcps where v small fields prevail. Again off rail & momentum into straight are important. Because these are not true run events its best to be bred for a shorter trip so as not to be caught flat footed.
SURFACE
Never back a horse who has not proven himself over course and distance. Although four of the five tracks have a polytrack surface it would be wrong to assume that a horse will be equally at home on any of them. Wolverhampton is tight, Great Leighs has sweeping bends, Lingfield is part down hill with a tight bend and a camber and Kempton is right handed. They are all polytrack, but they are all different.
KEMPTON
5f
The coarse is the inner ircuit. As they race on a bend for half the race & the straight is very short, LEADING is a big advantage as they wont o flat out & leader can then quicken in str. in 22 hcps of 7 of less runners 11 made all, 9 tracked & 2 came from rear (they both won again within next 2 runs).
To lead the draw is an advantage with 10 winners on inner, 3 next door, 4 next to that, then 3 in next stalls & 3 on outer.
OXOXNext I looked at what the Americans call the OXOX phenomenon. I call this the zig zag pattern because that is what it would look like on a graph. Some horses produce alternate high and low speed figures but are unable to produce consecutive good or bad performances. It is as if they bounce after every race. This pattern is seen most often in 3 year olds. It is surprising how many horses fall into this category.
EXAMPLES OF ZIG ZAG SPEED FIGURES
J M W TURNER 0064 W 7F0 67*L 5F 076 W 6Fi 67 S 6F 076 L 6F0 66 S 6FKINABALU00000i 61 L 7F 0i49 W 1M 054 W 1M1 i49 L 1M20 60 L 1M 0LADY NATILDAii 58 W 5F 042 W 6F0 66 W 6F 047 W 6F 057*W 6FLEGAL SET 0000i058 L 6F 0i53 L 6F 0077*L 7F 0i49 S 6F0 71 L 6F 060 L 6FMY MAITE 00000i66 L1M2 75 L1M2 i62 L 1M2 077*L 1M2PROSPECT COV ii29 W1M1 59 S 7F036 W 1M0 i57 W 1M1o 37 S 1M3 TASS HEEL 00o0ii61 L 2M 0i67 W 1M7 o62 S 1M6 067*S 1M60 58 L 1M50WHITE PLAINS i51 W1M70 60*W1M4 45 L 1M5 66*S 1M6 42 W 1M4 YALLA LARA00ii 63 L 7F 0070 L 1M 058 L 7F0 65 L 7F 059 L 1M 071*L 7F
If MY MAITEs next run was 1m2f at Lingfield you would expect him to produce a rating in the mid 70s. Conversely on his next outing KINABALU will probably return a figure around the fifty mark.
THREE TIME IMPROVERSThis title can be misleading because the horse may only have improved twice. The criteria is that a horse has three consecutively improving speed figures. For example PRINCE PROSPECT 67 65 57. When a horse produces this sequence how will it fare in its next race? Like me you would probably expect a further improvement in the majority of cases. However you will probably be as surprised as I was to find out this was not the case. An American study showed that only 25% continued to improve, 4% repeated their previous performance and a whopping 71% produced a lower figure.These statistics are depressing to say the least. I was hoping they would provide a valuable pointer to future winners. However that particular study was carried out in America where they have much more racing on many differing tracks. How would the figures stack up in this country with limited racing and only three courses.After carrying out the same research on our 3554 horses I found 622 occasions when this pattern occurred. The question was, on their next run would these horses fare any better than their American counterparts. Sadly the answer was, not a chance. They did even worse. The outcome was devastating. Of the 622 horses in the sample the results were as follows :-
143 IMPROVED 23%19 0RAN THE SAME 3%460 RETURNED LOWER FIG 74%
Of the 143 horses who continued to improve only 22 of them won (15%). And that is only a miserable 3.5% of the 622 horses in the sample.What about horses who ran up three consecutive declining figures, would they continue to deteriorate or would they perform a reverse bounce. The American study showed that 32% continued their decline, 4% ran the same figure and 64% improved. Again I looked at our 3554 horses for comparisons. On the 567 occasions where this pattern emerged :-
153 CONTINUED DECLINE 27%180 RAN THE SAME 3%396 IMPROVED 70%Although 70% of horses improved following their three race decline they did not improve enough to make them worth backing.
In US racing they are interested in speed figures, pace & track (draw & fastest strip) bias.
Who would lead, how fast would they go, how many front runners, where is the fastest strip on the track, is track favouring front runners or fast finishers.
Turf horses suited to AW have following profile - holds a prom position b4 onepaced in last 2f.
Majority races run at strong early pace as jockeys recognise importance of good early position, by halfway field spread out, and that means a clear run in likely.
Horses who appear to finish fast are merely galloping on & catching tired horses.
Winning distances are greater because horses arent just sprinting for 3f.
AW races barely affected by the weight carried.
TURF
Comparison of turf & AW racing for handicapping - in turf races the field were generally more bunched up than in AW race. Key factor in turf races is the finishing kick and speed figures have limited usefulness because they measure horses overall performance rather than final fraction. Hence Mordins new 2yo ratings which use last 3f. Also all AW races are around a bend rather than straight so that the field are more spaced out from earlier. Speed figures for turf are hindered by rain during meeting, headwind, slow early pace & moving rails.
When assessing past performance as a guide to future the subsequent race should be over same distance or not more than 1 fur further. Performance of most hcp class horses on turf is very distance sensitive.
A figure be it speed figure or rating tells you what the horse did last time. it doesnt automatically predict what will do next time. Dont expect horse to reproduce his good figure in a different type of race - hcp , claimer, mdn.
Most horses can produce similar rating at more than 1 distance.
The fastest horse cant win if hes badly drawn or if likely pace wont suit.
If an apprentice rode when good performance was achieved consider whether his claim was an important factor especially if not riding next time.
Other doubts to consider - ground, nature of track (R/H, L/H, Flat, Undulating, Straight, Bend) & size of field.
Track bias
Is it best to be on inside rail or outside & how is this influenced by stalls position & draw.
Is the track favouring front runners or strong finishers.
On sand the front runner doesnt get swamped because the horses in behind cant produce the same sort of acceleration they do on turf. They also avoid kickback. Explains why Lingfield favoured by good trainers as it replicates turf - no kickback & those that finish win
Pace
Fast - usually results in all the front runners finishing well btn.
Average - runners bunched but not falling over each other . Winner can come from behind or front & form likely to work out.
Slow - noone wants to lead, several pulling hard, positions changing frequently. If slow pace persists for 2 or 3 furlongs then horses to the fore have advantage when pace quickens. Results likely to be false.
Draw
Concentrate on recent results
What is draw adv over coarse & distance & how important is a good draw.
What is ideal way to ride this particular horse.
Does the draw make it easier or harder for jockey to execute tactics.
Goodwood = At 3f pole in races over 7f+ the horse in front won 50% of time in 1997.
Claiming races
Concentrate on horses at the top.
Group races
Weight penalties for previous pattern success can be important - extra 3-5lb significant
Be wary of Grp 1 winners in lesser events using as prep.
Hcp Chases
Weight doesnt matter.
Young chasers are best.
Suited by track & trip (R/H, L/H, Flat or Undulating).
Good jumpers in form.
Handicapping
The effect that weight has on slowing down a racehorse is that for each pound carried in a race over 5 furlongs (1,000 metres) it will slow a horse by over two feet (a neck), and in a 2-mile race (3,200 metres) by about eight feet (one length). So 30lbs at a sprint distance, at 3lbs per length, equals 10 lengths and 30lbs over 2 miles, at one pound per length, would be 30 lengths. At distances around a mile (1,600 metres) the accepted conversion is that one length equals 2lbs and at intermediate (10 furlongs/2,000 metres) and middle distances (12 furlongs/2,400 metres) one length equals 1.5 lbs.
These weight-to-distance equivalents are by no means 100 per cent exact but they still provide a good guide in helping to assess the merits of the racehorse. They will, for example, be altered by extreme ground conditions. The handicapper would be fully entitled to use the 3lbs per length over 5 furlongs on fast ground but it would almost certainly be inaccurate to use the same equivalent if the ground was very soft or heavy. He may choose to use 2lbs or even 1.5lbs per length in the latter case. This would be up to the individual concerned and he would base his decision on previous similar extreme conditions, with possible reference to average race times.
Distance
Pounds per Length
5f (1,000 metres)
3
6f (1,200 metres)
2.5
7f-9f (1,400-1,800 metres)
2
10-12f (2,000-2,400 metres)
1.5
12f plus (2,400 metres plus)
1
In flat handicaps the higher weights dont have any more effect than lighter weights (the difference between 9st & 10st is the same as 8st & 9st.
The weights carried are all as a result of the horse producing a performance that merited that rating. In other words all horses are capable of running to their handicap. So in order to win a hcp what you want is a horse who is going to run better than his rating. Which is why horses with few hcp runs win most hcps. What you want is an improver - someone who is better than have shown. You also need as many factors as possible in you favour (Draw, Going, Distance, Jockey, Track, Stable in form, Horse at his peak, and the class of horses he is running againt)
Factors affecting results
When assessing riders on the way up it is often a good idea to spend a period of time focusing on their tactical as well as riding abilities. Cardinal sins in my book, are how many times they get involved a disputed battle for the lead, rather than sit passively outside a leader, how deep they are on the track, do they look for cover and how do they look to overcome tricky draws.
The battle for the lead issue revolves around what I call the ‘David Bedford’ syndrome. Bedford used to run world class times in lower grade athletics meets where he was out on his own competing only against the clock. Stick him in a world class field however and even though his times were competitive if he was taken on for the lead it all went pear shaped. It was as if as well as the physical energy expended in running at a certain speed there was also a mental drain if he was forced to ‘race’ from an early stage as opposed to getting into a nice unpestered rhythm. I have always felt this applies to horses who even if they are going at the same physical speed seem to find a disputed lead far more draining than an uncontested one. Jockeys who realise this and don’t get hooked up in battles for the lead but instead adopt a passive stance which helps tilt the advantage in favour of the leaders, are clearly sound tactically rather than those who when given instructions to lead will press on to fulfill those orders even if they end up setting up for the closers.
The inside rail at Southwell is on e off the clearest advantages of track bias that is present on a regular basis and hence it is easy to measure riders against. Some jockeys however are capable of spotting more subtle nuances which may favour front runners if the rail is good or closers if the centre is quicker. The ability to flex tactics to capitalise on this is also a handy asset for the tactically astute rider.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Newmarket 31/10/8
6f Mdn
2009. 6/4f. Draw 11 of 16. Prev form Debut. Colt.
2008. 11/1. Draw 5 of 13. Prev form Debut. Colt
2007. 3/1. Draw 1 of 11. Prev form 45. Last run 2 months. Colt
2006. 4/7f. Draw 2 of 12. Prev form 3 . Last run 2 weeks. Filly
2006. 7/4. Draw 10 of 12. Prev form 2 . Last run 3 weeks. Filly
2005. 1/1f. Draw 11 of 12. Prev form 2. Last run 6 weeks. Filly
2004. 7/2. Draw 5 of 10. Prev form Debut Filly
2004. 5/2. Draw 3 of 11. Prev form 8. Last run 2 weeks. Colt
2003. 5/1. Draw 9 of 11. Prev form 3 Last run 1 week. Filly
2002. 6/4f. Draw 11 of 17. Prev form 3. Last run 2 weeks. Filly
2001. 66/1. Draw 4 of 20. Prev form 0. Last run 2 weeks. Colt
2000. 7/1 Draw 10 of 20. Prev form 6. Last run 3 weeks. Colt
Conclusion:
Filly 6/12, Colt 6/12
Prev form . 8 of the 12 had just 1 run, 1 had 2 runs, 3 debut (incl last 2)
Draw. No Adv but higher is best
Price 9 of 12 winners 5/1 or under incl 9 of last 10
7f Mdn - Colts
Prev form 1 had 1 run,4 had 2 runs, 4 had 3 runs, 3 debut
Draw 8 were drawn 10 or higher, only 1 drawn lower than 5
Price Last 6 winners under 6/1
NEWMARKET 1/11/8
7f Mdn Fillies
Price Only 2 fav and 10 winners 7/1 or over incl 5 at 16/1 or 20/1
Draw 11 were drawn 8 or higher
2009. 6/4f. Draw 11 of 16. Prev form Debut. Colt.
2008. 11/1. Draw 5 of 13. Prev form Debut. Colt
2007. 3/1. Draw 1 of 11. Prev form 45. Last run 2 months. Colt
2006. 4/7f. Draw 2 of 12. Prev form 3 . Last run 2 weeks. Filly
2006. 7/4. Draw 10 of 12. Prev form 2 . Last run 3 weeks. Filly
2005. 1/1f. Draw 11 of 12. Prev form 2. Last run 6 weeks. Filly
2004. 7/2. Draw 5 of 10. Prev form Debut Filly
2004. 5/2. Draw 3 of 11. Prev form 8. Last run 2 weeks. Colt
2003. 5/1. Draw 9 of 11. Prev form 3 Last run 1 week. Filly
2002. 6/4f. Draw 11 of 17. Prev form 3. Last run 2 weeks. Filly
2001. 66/1. Draw 4 of 20. Prev form 0. Last run 2 weeks. Colt
2000. 7/1 Draw 10 of 20. Prev form 6. Last run 3 weeks. Colt
Conclusion:
Filly 6/12, Colt 6/12
Prev form . 8 of the 12 had just 1 run, 1 had 2 runs, 3 debut (incl last 2)
Draw. No Adv but higher is best
Price 9 of 12 winners 5/1 or under incl 9 of last 10
7f Mdn - Colts
Prev form 1 had 1 run,4 had 2 runs, 4 had 3 runs, 3 debut
Draw 8 were drawn 10 or higher, only 1 drawn lower than 5
Price Last 6 winners under 6/1
NEWMARKET 1/11/8
7f Mdn Fillies
Price Only 2 fav and 10 winners 7/1 or over incl 5 at 16/1 or 20/1
Draw 11 were drawn 8 or higher
Catterick 4.11.08
6f Nursery
2009. 9/2, Draw 3 of 9. Made All. Prev form 06153. Form 7f. Best run last. Colt. 4wk.
2008. 17/2, Draw 2 of 4.Close up. Prev form 94310. Form 5f. Best run 2nd last.Colt. 5wk.
2007. 3/1f. Draw 2 of 8. Made All. Prev form 225231022. Form 6f. Best runs last 2. Filly. 2wk
2006. 5/2f. Draw 1 of 6. Made All. Prev form 772 Form 7f/6f. Best run last. Filly 2wk
2005. 6/1. Draw 2 of 10. Made All. Prev form 651 Form 5f/6f. Best run last. Colt 1wk
2004. 3/1. Draw 2 of 10. Rear. Prev form 35764811 Form 6f. Best run last. Colt 1wk
2003. 6/1. Draw 11 of 12. Close up. Prev form 85068310514 Form 6f/5f. Best run last.Colt 1wk
2002. 5/4f. Draw 6 of 12. Close up. Prev form 7454012 Form 6f. Best runs last 2. Colt 1wk
2001. 3/1. Draw 3 of 12. Close up. Prev form 42219213 Form 6f. Best runs last 2.Filly 3wk
1999. 11/2 Draw 4 of 8. Close up. Prev form 6603614 Form 5f/6f. Best run last. Colt.1wk
Conclusion:
Recent form is all important. 7 of 10 winners had raced in last 2 weeks ( 9 in last 4 weeks).
9 had finished in last 4 on last run . 7 had won in last 2 runs. 9 had finished in 1st 2 in at least 1 of their last 2 runs.
All had recorded their career best rating in last 2 runs, most last time.
9 were 6/1 or less but not necessarily favourite.
Draw - 9 of 10 winners were drawn in bottom half of field, with stalls 1-4 covering 8 wins.
9 of the 10 raced close up
All had 6f form when race run at 6f
7 colts, 3 fillies
Has raced 3 or more times - 6 had run at least 7 times. A lot of runs is positive not negative.
2009 even though now run at 7f the winner met most trends. FROM 2009 RACE 7F,
2009. 9/2, Draw 3 of 9. Made All. Prev form 06153. Form 7f. Best run last. Colt. 4wk.
2008. 17/2, Draw 2 of 4.Close up. Prev form 94310. Form 5f. Best run 2nd last.Colt. 5wk.
2007. 3/1f. Draw 2 of 8. Made All. Prev form 225231022. Form 6f. Best runs last 2. Filly. 2wk
2006. 5/2f. Draw 1 of 6. Made All. Prev form 772 Form 7f/6f. Best run last. Filly 2wk
2005. 6/1. Draw 2 of 10. Made All. Prev form 651 Form 5f/6f. Best run last. Colt 1wk
2004. 3/1. Draw 2 of 10. Rear. Prev form 35764811 Form 6f. Best run last. Colt 1wk
2003. 6/1. Draw 11 of 12. Close up. Prev form 85068310514 Form 6f/5f. Best run last.Colt 1wk
2002. 5/4f. Draw 6 of 12. Close up. Prev form 7454012 Form 6f. Best runs last 2. Colt 1wk
2001. 3/1. Draw 3 of 12. Close up. Prev form 42219213 Form 6f. Best runs last 2.Filly 3wk
1999. 11/2 Draw 4 of 8. Close up. Prev form 6603614 Form 5f/6f. Best run last. Colt.1wk
Conclusion:
Recent form is all important. 7 of 10 winners had raced in last 2 weeks ( 9 in last 4 weeks).
9 had finished in last 4 on last run . 7 had won in last 2 runs. 9 had finished in 1st 2 in at least 1 of their last 2 runs.
All had recorded their career best rating in last 2 runs, most last time.
9 were 6/1 or less but not necessarily favourite.
Draw - 9 of 10 winners were drawn in bottom half of field, with stalls 1-4 covering 8 wins.
9 of the 10 raced close up
All had 6f form when race run at 6f
7 colts, 3 fillies
Has raced 3 or more times - 6 had run at least 7 times. A lot of runs is positive not negative.
2009 even though now run at 7f the winner met most trends. FROM 2009 RACE 7F,
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Leopardstown 2.11.08
November Hcp - Key Trends courtesy Tony Keenan
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less before jockeys’ claims were taken into account.- Age seems irrelevant here as horses aged between 3 and 11 have won since 1998.- Highly-rated 3yos do win this – Lounaos won off 98 in 2006 while Enzeli defied a mark of 102 in 1998 – but none of 8 older horses to win in past decade was rated higher than 89.- Scottish Memories hadn’t run since the Champion Hurdle in March when landing this race in 2003 but preference should be given to race-fit runners; 9 of the last 10 winners had an outing in the previous 7 weeks.- Respect in-form horses. Of the 9 winners to have had a recent outing, only 1 finished out of the first six. 4 were last time out winners, including 3 of the last 4 victors.- Predominantly National Hunt trainers have dominated affairs lately - only John Oxx and Mick Halford (whose winner was the hurdler Golden Cross) have struck for the flat brigade since 1998.- Athlumney Lad was a total trends-buster when winning this race last year having had 34 previous handicap starts – none of the other 9 winners in the period covered had run more than 7 times in handicap company.- 7 of the last 9 winners had already won a handicap in the season of their victory.- Look out for classy jumps performers. Of the last 7 winners, 5 had a published hurdles mark of 117 or more while Dorans Pride was a 157-rated chaser at the time of his win.- Proven stamina is a massive plus – 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 14f on the level. Of the exceptions, Scottish Memories was a multiple graded winner over hurdles while Calladine had won a 3-mile handicap hurdle.*Bubble N Squeak was first past the post in the 2002 renewal but was later disqualified when a banned substance was found in her sample– for the purpose of this analysis she has been considered the winner.
Nursery 7f
2011 Colt. 21. last run 2 months. career best last. draw 3 of 8
2010 Filly. 25352. last run 3 weeks. career best last. draw 2 of 9.
2009 Colt 000. last run 3 weeks. within 4lb career best last. draw 7 of18
2008 Colt 403000. last run 3 weeks. poor run last time, draw 16 of 18
2007. Colt. 263241313. last ran 3 weeks. within 5lb of career best last. draw 6 of 12
2006. Colt. 69083. last ran 2 weeks. career best last. draw 1 of 13
2005. Colt. 36772. last ran 2 weeks. career best last. draw 4 of 16
2004. Colt. 95431811 last ran 2 weeks career best last. draw 2 of 16
2003. Filly. 4216. last ran 2 weeks. within 1lb of career best last. draw 6 of 17
2002. Colt. 6650315. last ran 4 weeks within 2lb of career best last. draw 15 of 17
2001. Colt. 16734. last ran 2 weeks career best last. draw 7 of 14
2000. Filly 332560 last ran 2 months well below career best last. draw 3 of 18
Conclusions
9 colts, 3 fillies
10 of 12 winners had run in last 4 weeks - 5 in last 2 weeks
10 of 12 winners were drawn in bottom half of draw
8 of 12 winners were within 2lb of career best on last run
9 of 12 winners had finished in the frame in 1 of their last 2 runs
1 favourite in 12 runnings
A lot of runs is positive not negative.
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less before jockeys’ claims were taken into account.- Age seems irrelevant here as horses aged between 3 and 11 have won since 1998.- Highly-rated 3yos do win this – Lounaos won off 98 in 2006 while Enzeli defied a mark of 102 in 1998 – but none of 8 older horses to win in past decade was rated higher than 89.- Scottish Memories hadn’t run since the Champion Hurdle in March when landing this race in 2003 but preference should be given to race-fit runners; 9 of the last 10 winners had an outing in the previous 7 weeks.- Respect in-form horses. Of the 9 winners to have had a recent outing, only 1 finished out of the first six. 4 were last time out winners, including 3 of the last 4 victors.- Predominantly National Hunt trainers have dominated affairs lately - only John Oxx and Mick Halford (whose winner was the hurdler Golden Cross) have struck for the flat brigade since 1998.- Athlumney Lad was a total trends-buster when winning this race last year having had 34 previous handicap starts – none of the other 9 winners in the period covered had run more than 7 times in handicap company.- 7 of the last 9 winners had already won a handicap in the season of their victory.- Look out for classy jumps performers. Of the last 7 winners, 5 had a published hurdles mark of 117 or more while Dorans Pride was a 157-rated chaser at the time of his win.- Proven stamina is a massive plus – 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 14f on the level. Of the exceptions, Scottish Memories was a multiple graded winner over hurdles while Calladine had won a 3-mile handicap hurdle.*Bubble N Squeak was first past the post in the 2002 renewal but was later disqualified when a banned substance was found in her sample– for the purpose of this analysis she has been considered the winner.
Nursery 7f
2011 Colt. 21. last run 2 months. career best last. draw 3 of 8
2010 Filly. 25352. last run 3 weeks. career best last. draw 2 of 9.
2009 Colt 000. last run 3 weeks. within 4lb career best last. draw 7 of18
2008 Colt 403000. last run 3 weeks. poor run last time, draw 16 of 18
2007. Colt. 263241313. last ran 3 weeks. within 5lb of career best last. draw 6 of 12
2006. Colt. 69083. last ran 2 weeks. career best last. draw 1 of 13
2005. Colt. 36772. last ran 2 weeks. career best last. draw 4 of 16
2004. Colt. 95431811 last ran 2 weeks career best last. draw 2 of 16
2003. Filly. 4216. last ran 2 weeks. within 1lb of career best last. draw 6 of 17
2002. Colt. 6650315. last ran 4 weeks within 2lb of career best last. draw 15 of 17
2001. Colt. 16734. last ran 2 weeks career best last. draw 7 of 14
2000. Filly 332560 last ran 2 months well below career best last. draw 3 of 18
Conclusions
9 colts, 3 fillies
10 of 12 winners had run in last 4 weeks - 5 in last 2 weeks
10 of 12 winners were drawn in bottom half of draw
8 of 12 winners were within 2lb of career best on last run
9 of 12 winners had finished in the frame in 1 of their last 2 runs
1 favourite in 12 runnings
A lot of runs is positive not negative.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Gowran 31.10.8
8f races on SOFT
Soft. 15 ran Mdn. Draw 15, 14, 7. Run notes - prom, prom, chsd ldrs
Soft. 15 ran Mdn. Draw 13, 15, 1. Run notes - led, prom, chsd ldrs
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 13, 10, 15.
Soft. 16 ran Mdn. Draw 11, 7, 15. Run notes - led, mid div, led
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 6, 8, 4. Run notes - mid div, rear, prom
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 5, 3, 8. Run notes - chsd ldrs, rear, chsd ldrs
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 3, 2, 5. Run notes - mid div, chsd ldrs, prom
The run style is important - In maidens they go a slower pace & a high draw & prominent position are important. 3 races (Draw 11 or higher won all 3) (Run style led or prom)
In handicaps those with high draw can go too fast enabling those with low draw to come from behind).
On Good or faster ground over 8f 19 of 27 winners were in top half of draw while 8 were in bottom half. Of those 14 winners were drawn in the 5 highest stalls.
Soft. 15 ran Mdn. Draw 15, 14, 7. Run notes - prom, prom, chsd ldrs
Soft. 15 ran Mdn. Draw 13, 15, 1. Run notes - led, prom, chsd ldrs
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 13, 10, 15.
Soft. 16 ran Mdn. Draw 11, 7, 15. Run notes - led, mid div, led
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 6, 8, 4. Run notes - mid div, rear, prom
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 5, 3, 8. Run notes - chsd ldrs, rear, chsd ldrs
Soft. 16 ran Hcp. Draw 3, 2, 5. Run notes - mid div, chsd ldrs, prom
The run style is important - In maidens they go a slower pace & a high draw & prominent position are important. 3 races (Draw 11 or higher won all 3) (Run style led or prom)
In handicaps those with high draw can go too fast enabling those with low draw to come from behind).
On Good or faster ground over 8f 19 of 27 winners were in top half of draw while 8 were in bottom half. Of those 14 winners were drawn in the 5 highest stalls.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Limerick 28.10.8
Races over 6f 100yds on Yielding or softer. Time will be about 1.33. There is a run of 1.5 fur from stalls to 1st bend. This bend lasts to 2.5fur out. In other words the bend is 2.5fur long so you dont want to be on outside. The trip is 6.5 fur.
4 races meet criteria
Heavy. 14 ran mdn. Draw 3,6,7. Run notes Led, ran 2nd, tracked ldrs
Soft. 13 ran hcp. Draw 4,9,5. Run notes ran 3rd, ran 2nd, mid div
Yieldng.14 ran hcp. Draw12,7,10.Run notes, ran 4th, led, ran 3rd
Yieldng.14 ran hcp. Draw 6,10,3. Run notes ran 3rd, led, chsd ldrs
Conclusions:
The draw isnt vital - you can win from anywhere - you definately dont want outer stalls in 1 or 2 but equally the performance of 14,13,12,11 are disappionting with only 1 placed from 12 tries
However it is vital to run prominent. In 4 races 16 horses will have raced in the 1st 4, 8 or these filled all 8 places.
The horses that led finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd & 4th at 25/1.
The winners were 6 & 7f performers.
RESULTS from 28.10.8
Heavy. 13 ran Mdn. Draw 10,9,6. Run notes - mid div, led, chsd ldrs
Heavy. 14 ran Mdn. Draw 4, 8, 2. Run notes - ran 3rd, ran 2nd, led
Heavy. 14 ran Hcp. Draw 7,11,5. Run notes -ran 5th, ran 2nd, ran 3rd
Again the draw isnt vital although again stalls 14, 13, 12 underperformed and you dont want outer draw of 1. Again you want to run prominent but not necessarily lead.
8f 50yd races
Draw isnt important as there is a 3f run to 1st bend.
4 races meet criteria
Heavy. 14 ran mdn. Draw 3,6,7. Run notes Led, ran 2nd, tracked ldrs
Soft. 13 ran hcp. Draw 4,9,5. Run notes ran 3rd, ran 2nd, mid div
Yieldng.14 ran hcp. Draw12,7,10.Run notes, ran 4th, led, ran 3rd
Yieldng.14 ran hcp. Draw 6,10,3. Run notes ran 3rd, led, chsd ldrs
Conclusions:
The draw isnt vital - you can win from anywhere - you definately dont want outer stalls in 1 or 2 but equally the performance of 14,13,12,11 are disappionting with only 1 placed from 12 tries
However it is vital to run prominent. In 4 races 16 horses will have raced in the 1st 4, 8 or these filled all 8 places.
The horses that led finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd & 4th at 25/1.
The winners were 6 & 7f performers.
RESULTS from 28.10.8
Heavy. 13 ran Mdn. Draw 10,9,6. Run notes - mid div, led, chsd ldrs
Heavy. 14 ran Mdn. Draw 4, 8, 2. Run notes - ran 3rd, ran 2nd, led
Heavy. 14 ran Hcp. Draw 7,11,5. Run notes -ran 5th, ran 2nd, ran 3rd
Again the draw isnt vital although again stalls 14, 13, 12 underperformed and you dont want outer draw of 1. Again you want to run prominent but not necessarily lead.
8f 50yd races
Draw isnt important as there is a 3f run to 1st bend.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Galway 27.10.8
As for the previous day this meeting has been run on soft & heavy in 4 of prev 5 years.
2m Mdn Hdle
Some good horses have won this (Native Scout, Mariah Rollins,Justified & Aitmatov.
In last 10 years all have started 10/1 or under and 5 favourites have won.
2007. Mare , seasonal debut,had 3 hdle runs LY, won bumper.
2006. Gelding, has 2 hdles runs TY & 1 LY, flat winner
2005. Gelding, no runs hdles, won bumper TY
2004. Gelding, had 1 hdle run, won bumper LY
2003. Mare, no run hdles, 2nd bumper TY, won bumper LY
2002. Mare, had 6 hdle runs, seasonal debut, won 2 bumper LY
2001. Gelding, had 5 hdle runs incl 1 TY, won bumper LY
Conclusion:
Mares have a good record with 3 of last 7 wins
All winners had won a race - 6 of them bumpers
2m Mdn Hdle
Some good horses have won this (Native Scout, Mariah Rollins,Justified & Aitmatov.
In last 10 years all have started 10/1 or under and 5 favourites have won.
2007. Mare , seasonal debut,had 3 hdle runs LY, won bumper.
2006. Gelding, has 2 hdles runs TY & 1 LY, flat winner
2005. Gelding, no runs hdles, won bumper TY
2004. Gelding, had 1 hdle run, won bumper LY
2003. Mare, no run hdles, 2nd bumper TY, won bumper LY
2002. Mare, had 6 hdle runs, seasonal debut, won 2 bumper LY
2001. Gelding, had 5 hdle runs incl 1 TY, won bumper LY
Conclusion:
Mares have a good record with 3 of last 7 wins
All winners had won a race - 6 of them bumpers
Galway 26.10.8
In the last 4 years this meeting has been run on soft or heavy ground so history should give some pointers.
2yo auction race this will be run in about 1m 40sec
2004. winner had 3 prev runs with a win over 8f. He ran 4th & was drawn on the rail.His best run (win) was on soft last run 22 days ago.
2005. winner had 3 prev runs with 2 2nds over 7f & 8f.He raced mid div & was drawn 8 of 15. His best run was 8f & he raced well on Y. Last run 8 days ago. Prev run style was to run prom.
2006. winner had 9 prev runs with win at 8f. She led/ disp & was drawn 3 of 7. Her best runs were at 8f/9f & had run well on soft/heavy. Last run 9 days ago.
2007. winner had 6 prev runs the best of whic was a 4th. She led & was drawn on the rail. Last run was 6 weeks ago.
Conclusions :
The 2007 result which was 20/1 does not fit prev trends.
Other 3 winners were 4/1 or shorter.
Horses racing prom are favoured - 2 led/disp, 1 raced 4th & the other who previously raced prominently raced mid div because of draw.
The draw is important - in order to race prom you dont want to be drawn wide.
All winners had 3 or more runs.
2 colts, 2 fillies
7f Hcp
3 of the 4 winners were in the top half of the draw with 2 drawn within 3 of rail.
2 3yo s won ( 3 3yos in last 5 yrs)
1 winner led, 2 were prom & 1 came from rear
All were 10/1 or under
All 4 had raced in the last 9 days ( which isnt as relevant as it appears as 10 of 16 runners this year meet this criterion).
All winners were placed in the last month - they may have been unplaced since
Has form at 8f - this is a stiff 7f on heavy
Conclusion
senators Alibi record at Galway on all ground 213252123046611 but has obv has training probs as hasnt run as frequently as previously
Vertigo on course meets trends
12f Hcp
Again 3yos have a good record with 3 of last 5 winners
Last 4 winners had run in last month & 3 of them had won their previous outing
3 of the 4 had showed ability to handle soft
Fillies won 3 o the last 5
2m Hcp H
All 4 winners had run in last 5 weeks
3 of the 4 carried under 10 stone
All were 6yo or older & all had a lot of runs
3yo Mdn Hdle
3 of 4 winners has run previously over hdles
All had run in last month
2 fillies 3 colts in 5 runnings
2yo auction race this will be run in about 1m 40sec
2004. winner had 3 prev runs with a win over 8f. He ran 4th & was drawn on the rail.His best run (win) was on soft last run 22 days ago.
2005. winner had 3 prev runs with 2 2nds over 7f & 8f.He raced mid div & was drawn 8 of 15. His best run was 8f & he raced well on Y. Last run 8 days ago. Prev run style was to run prom.
2006. winner had 9 prev runs with win at 8f. She led/ disp & was drawn 3 of 7. Her best runs were at 8f/9f & had run well on soft/heavy. Last run 9 days ago.
2007. winner had 6 prev runs the best of whic was a 4th. She led & was drawn on the rail. Last run was 6 weeks ago.
Conclusions :
The 2007 result which was 20/1 does not fit prev trends.
Other 3 winners were 4/1 or shorter.
Horses racing prom are favoured - 2 led/disp, 1 raced 4th & the other who previously raced prominently raced mid div because of draw.
The draw is important - in order to race prom you dont want to be drawn wide.
All winners had 3 or more runs.
2 colts, 2 fillies
7f Hcp
3 of the 4 winners were in the top half of the draw with 2 drawn within 3 of rail.
2 3yo s won ( 3 3yos in last 5 yrs)
1 winner led, 2 were prom & 1 came from rear
All were 10/1 or under
All 4 had raced in the last 9 days ( which isnt as relevant as it appears as 10 of 16 runners this year meet this criterion).
All winners were placed in the last month - they may have been unplaced since
Has form at 8f - this is a stiff 7f on heavy
Conclusion
senators Alibi record at Galway on all ground 213252123046611 but has obv has training probs as hasnt run as frequently as previously
Vertigo on course meets trends
12f Hcp
Again 3yos have a good record with 3 of last 5 winners
Last 4 winners had run in last month & 3 of them had won their previous outing
3 of the 4 had showed ability to handle soft
Fillies won 3 o the last 5
2m Hcp H
All 4 winners had run in last 5 weeks
3 of the 4 carried under 10 stone
All were 6yo or older & all had a lot of runs
3yo Mdn Hdle
3 of 4 winners has run previously over hdles
All had run in last month
2 fillies 3 colts in 5 runnings
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Naas 25.10.8
4yo Mdn hdle
Except for last year (when it was run on good to firm & didnt attract the usual quality entry) this has fallen to nice horses for the future - Zum See, Feathard Lady, Wanango & Catch Me. All these winners were having their 1st run over hdles. All had previously won (3 in bumpers & Catch Me on the flat). There have been some nice sorts among the beaten horses - War of Attrition, Cane Brake.
This years renewal :
Donnas Palm - won bumper on g-y & sire tends to get average sorts who like nice ground, so with ground likely negative, sire negative for quality horses.
Just Friends - by Beneficial & put up a staying performance when winning 1st 4yo bumper of the year at Leop Jan. Will act well sort but may need further than 2m.
Smoking Aces - won Thurles bumper & should have won Limerick winners but left bit to do.
Except for last year (when it was run on good to firm & didnt attract the usual quality entry) this has fallen to nice horses for the future - Zum See, Feathard Lady, Wanango & Catch Me. All these winners were having their 1st run over hdles. All had previously won (3 in bumpers & Catch Me on the flat). There have been some nice sorts among the beaten horses - War of Attrition, Cane Brake.
This years renewal :
Donnas Palm - won bumper on g-y & sire tends to get average sorts who like nice ground, so with ground likely negative, sire negative for quality horses.
Just Friends - by Beneficial & put up a staying performance when winning 1st 4yo bumper of the year at Leop Jan. Will act well sort but may need further than 2m.
Smoking Aces - won Thurles bumper & should have won Limerick winners but left bit to do.
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