Leopardstown 2.11.08

November Hcp - Key Trends courtesy Tony Keenan

8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less before jockeys’ claims were taken into account.- Age seems irrelevant here as horses aged between 3 and 11 have won since 1998.- Highly-rated 3yos do win this – Lounaos won off 98 in 2006 while Enzeli defied a mark of 102 in 1998 – but none of 8 older horses to win in past decade was rated higher than 89.- Scottish Memories hadn’t run since the Champion Hurdle in March when landing this race in 2003 but preference should be given to race-fit runners; 9 of the last 10 winners had an outing in the previous 7 weeks.- Respect in-form horses. Of the 9 winners to have had a recent outing, only 1 finished out of the first six. 4 were last time out winners, including 3 of the last 4 victors.- Predominantly National Hunt trainers have dominated affairs lately - only John Oxx and Mick Halford (whose winner was the hurdler Golden Cross) have struck for the flat brigade since 1998.- Athlumney Lad was a total trends-buster when winning this race last year having had 34 previous handicap starts – none of the other 9 winners in the period covered had run more than 7 times in handicap company.- 7 of the last 9 winners had already won a handicap in the season of their victory.- Look out for classy jumps performers. Of the last 7 winners, 5 had a published hurdles mark of 117 or more while Dorans Pride was a 157-rated chaser at the time of his win.- Proven stamina is a massive plus – 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 14f on the level. Of the exceptions, Scottish Memories was a multiple graded winner over hurdles while Calladine had won a 3-mile handicap hurdle.*Bubble N Squeak was first past the post in the 2002 renewal but was later disqualified when a banned substance was found in her sample– for the purpose of this analysis she has been considered the winner.


Nursery 7f
2011 Colt.  21.   last run 2 months. career best last.  draw 3 of 8
2010  Filly. 25352. last run 3 weeks. career best last. draw 2 of 9.
2009  Colt  000. last run 3 weeks. within 4lb career best last. draw 7 of18
2008  Colt  403000.  last run 3 weeks. poor run last time, draw 16 of 18
2007. Colt. 263241313. last ran 3 weeks. within 5lb of career best last. draw 6 of 12
2006. Colt. 69083. last ran 2 weeks. career best last. draw 1 of 13
2005. Colt. 36772. last ran 2 weeks. career best last. draw 4 of 16
2004. Colt. 95431811 last ran 2 weeks career best last. draw 2 of 16
2003. Filly. 4216. last ran 2 weeks. within 1lb of career best last. draw 6 of 17
2002. Colt. 6650315. last ran 4 weeks within 2lb of career best last. draw 15 of 17
2001. Colt. 16734. last ran 2 weeks career best last. draw 7 of 14
2000. Filly 332560 last ran 2 months well below career best last. draw 3 of 18


Conclusions
9 colts, 3 fillies
10 of 12 winners had run in last 4 weeks - 5 in last 2 weeks
10 of 12 winners were drawn in bottom half of draw
8 of 12 winners were within 2lb of career best on last run
9 of 12 winners had finished in the frame in 1 of their last 2 runs
1 favourite in 12 runnings
A lot of runs is positive not negative.