In the last 4 years this meeting has been run on soft or heavy ground so history should give some pointers.
2yo auction race this will be run in about 1m 40sec
2004. winner had 3 prev runs with a win over 8f. He ran 4th & was drawn on the rail.His best run (win) was on soft last run 22 days ago.
2005. winner had 3 prev runs with 2 2nds over 7f & 8f.He raced mid div & was drawn 8 of 15. His best run was 8f & he raced well on Y. Last run 8 days ago. Prev run style was to run prom.
2006. winner had 9 prev runs with win at 8f. She led/ disp & was drawn 3 of 7. Her best runs were at 8f/9f & had run well on soft/heavy. Last run 9 days ago.
2007. winner had 6 prev runs the best of whic was a 4th. She led & was drawn on the rail. Last run was 6 weeks ago.
Conclusions :
The 2007 result which was 20/1 does not fit prev trends.
Other 3 winners were 4/1 or shorter.
Horses racing prom are favoured - 2 led/disp, 1 raced 4th & the other who previously raced prominently raced mid div because of draw.
The draw is important - in order to race prom you dont want to be drawn wide.
All winners had 3 or more runs.
2 colts, 2 fillies
7f Hcp
3 of the 4 winners were in the top half of the draw with 2 drawn within 3 of rail.
2 3yo s won ( 3 3yos in last 5 yrs)
1 winner led, 2 were prom & 1 came from rear
All were 10/1 or under
All 4 had raced in the last 9 days ( which isnt as relevant as it appears as 10 of 16 runners this year meet this criterion).
All winners were placed in the last month - they may have been unplaced since
Has form at 8f - this is a stiff 7f on heavy
Conclusion
senators Alibi record at Galway on all ground 213252123046611 but has obv has training probs as hasnt run as frequently as previously
Vertigo on course meets trends
12f Hcp
Again 3yos have a good record with 3 of last 5 winners
Last 4 winners had run in last month & 3 of them had won their previous outing
3 of the 4 had showed ability to handle soft
Fillies won 3 o the last 5
2m Hcp H
All 4 winners had run in last 5 weeks
3 of the 4 carried under 10 stone
All were 6yo or older & all had a lot of runs
3yo Mdn Hdle
3 of 4 winners has run previously over hdles
All had run in last month
2 fillies 3 colts in 5 runnings
Sunday, October 26, 2008
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