Trends for Paddy Power Hcp Chase courtesy Tony Keenan

Cane Brake won the 2006 renewal off 11-3 (Adrian Joyce claimed 7lbs) but his weight-carrying performance was more the exception than the rule; 8 of the last 9 winners carried no more than 10-8 before jockeys’ claims.- All winners since 1998 were aged between 6 and 8 – 2 were 6yos while the 7yos and 8yos won four apiece. - Only 1 horse rated higher than 123 has won this in the past 10 years.- Newbay Prop was a rare out-of-form winner of the race last term when landing the spoils off the back being pulled up in the Porterstown; his trainer Tony Martin has his own unique methods and all of the other 9 winners in the past decade finished no worse than 5th on their last start. 7 of those 9 finished first, second or third.- The Troytown would seem the obvious place to start in the search for the winner of this race but Navan provides a much sterner test of stamina than this speed-favouring track – just 1 of the last 10 winners ran in the Troytown that season though 8 placed horses ran in the Navan event. The Cork National has been a better guide to winners at least with 3 of the last 7 Irish-trained winners hitting the frame at Cork before winning here. - All of the winners in the last decade had run at least once since October.- Unexposed horses rule here – the last 11 winners all had 7 or fewer runs in handicap chases.- None of the winners since 1998 had more than 3 seasons chasing experience. - 4 winners since 1998 had already won at the track while 2 more had placed form at Leopardstown.- Stamina isn’t as important as one might think as 4 of the last 10 winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had won over at least 2m5f though.
Posted by Tony Keenan