Friday, March 27, 2009

Draw Adv Ireland - courtesy David Renham

Ballinrobe Draw Guide
Most of the handicaps over 6f see 15 or 16 runners line up, but they have not raced over this trip for the past two seasons. In these big field handicaps middle to high draws have a definite advantage. Over 1m1f it is possible to win from any draw position but high is best.

Cork Draw Guide
Over the two sprint trips there seems very little in the draw. However, at 7f there is a strong bias with high draws having a definite advantage. In the past four seasons there have been 15 handicap races with 10 or more runners over 7f and draws 1 to 4 have failed to win a race between them. A good example of a race with a strong high draw bias came on 24th August 2008 in the 7f Newmarket handicap. The first six horses home were drawn 15, 11, 18, 14, 6 and 16. Gimli’s Treasure who was drawn 6 that day did best of the disadvantaged low draws, and proved that was a good effort as two runs later he won at 20/1 at Gowran Park.
From 1m to 1m2f low draws continue to struggle as high to middle draws have an advantage. There is no draw bias over 1m4f and further

Down Royal Draw Guide
Over 5f high to middle draws have the advantage. This is perhaps no surprise as higher draws drawn next to the inside rail. The 5f trip turns quite sharply right around two furlongs from home which further helps higher draws. Over 7f a similar draw bias exists, although in 2008 low draws won more than their share of races. However, over the past four seasons, the top third of the draw have provided 28 of the first three finishers, while the bottom third of the draw have managed just 11. There is no draw bias over 1m2f and further.

Dundalk Draw Guide
Over 5f low to middle draws seem to hold a slight advantage, while over 6f the stats suggest the bias to low draws is stronger. Around 50% of 10+ runner 6f handicaps have been won by the bottom third of the draw. Over 7f there seems to be no advantage in the draw, while at 1m low draws statistically have a very small edge. There is no draw bias over 1m3f and further.
WOULDNT AGREE WITH THIS AT ALL _ Draw at all dists favours Low.

Bellewstown Draw Guide
There have been only 24 races over 5f over the past four seasons. Of these, 19 of them have had 10 or more runners, and the lowest four draws have combined to win just one race between them. This may come as a surprise as the 5f trip at Bellewstown turns left-handed with around 2f to go. Over 5f it seems that middle to high draws actually have the advantage, and it does pay to race up with or close to the pace.
Over 1 mile low draws do seem to hold the advantage. Draw 1 has a particularly good record in 10+ runner handicaps registering 6 wins from the 26 races over the past four seasons. Backing all horses drawn in the lowest stall in these races would have produced a profit of £17.50 to £1 level stakes (ROI +67.3%).

Fairyhouse Draw Guide
Over 6f there is occasionally a high draw bias and this was demonstrated on 189th October 2008 in the Irish Stallion Farms Joe McGrath European Breeders Fund Handicap where the first four horses home in this 16-runner race were drawn in 17, 18, 16 and 14 (2 non runners). Hence the top three draws filled the first three places with the fifth highest drawn horse coming 4th. The high draw bias has traditionally been at its strongest on yielding or softer going. There have only been five 10+ runner handicaps on this type of ground in the past four years, but 10 of the 15 top three positions have been secured by high draws.
Over 7f high draws once again have the edge. 15 of the 21 races with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in a double figure stall. Once again it looks that this bias becomes slightly stronger on easy ground. Over 1m1f and 1m2f, low draws again struggle and a middle to high berth has been a definite advantage in recent years. There is no draw bias over 1m4f and further

Galway Draw Guide
There are a good number of races over 7f over a season and the draw stats point to a middle to high draw bias. In 10+ runner handicaps the top five stalls have provided 13 wins compared with 5 wins for the bottom five stalls. The last handicap race of 2008 the CCTV Venue Control Handicap saw the top three draws come 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Over 1m, the stats seem to suggest the bias evens out, however the 1m4f trip has seen low draws really struggle in recent years. Whether this is simply an anomaly or not it is difficult to say.

Gowran Draw Guide
A few years ago over 7f low draws did best on faster ground, while high draws did best on softer. However, there seems little in the draw these days at this distance. Indeed overall it is course that offers no real draw bias at any distance. - I FEEL A DEFINATE BIAS TO HIGH.

Killarney Draw Guide
There are no races over sprint trips at Killarney and there is no draw bias at any of the trips of 1m+.

Leopardstown Draw Guide
There have only been four 10 runner+ handicaps over 6f in the past four years so it is difficult to be concrete about any biases. Looking at the all race stats there seems little in it. Over 7f there has been no consistent bias one way or the other, but occasionally a strong bias can exist. For example on 27th October in the 18-runner 7f J.R.A Nursery, the first seven home were drawn 16, 10, 15, 14, 7, 13, and 17. The best finishing position for the bottom third of the draw (draws 1 to 6) was 9th.
Over 1m, low to middle draws seem to have a slight advantage, but it does not seem that significant. There is no draw bias over 1m1f and further.

Limerick Draw Guide
Over 7f and 1m high draws seemed to have an advantage in 2005/06, but that has not been the case in the last two years where lower draws have certainly won their fair share. There is no draw bias over 1m3f and further. I FEEL HIGH HAS DEF ADV<

Naas Draw Guide
There seems to be a slight advantage to those drawn high over 5f, although the sample is very small and one cannot be dogmatic about it. There seems a similar strength bias over 6f, but again nothing to go overboard about. The sprint track is straight and quite wide, but gets narrower in the final 1½f. The runners tend to congregate down the centre.
Races of 7f or more are run on the round course and despite it being left-handed there is no sign of any low draw bias. The reason this may be the case is that they run around 3f before starting to turn left so wide (high) draws are not necessarily stuck out wide by the time they reach the long sweeping turn. There is no draw bias over 1m and further.

Navan Draw Guide
After 1½f in sprints the straight course narrows and hence the runners congregate centre to far side. There seems little in the draw at the two sprint trips. On the round course the draw seems very fair at all distances from 1m up to 1m5f.

Roscommon Draw Guide
There are no sprints at this track, but over 7f there is a definite advantage to high draws. Of the 21 handicaps with 10+ runners in the past four seasons, 13 have been won by high draws. A good example of the high drawn bias occurred on June 8th 2008 in the 14 runner Dermot Hughes Toyota Car Sales Handicap. Funatfuntasia the winner was drawn 14, while the next three horses home were drawn 13, 9 and 11.
Over 1m2f high to middle draws have a slight advantage, while there seems little in it over 1m4f.

Tipperary Draw Guide
The 5f sprint trip is raced on a straight course and low draws seem to be at a disadvantage, with middle to high draws winning 23 of 26 handicaps with 10+ runners over the past four seasons. A good example of the bias occurred on 10th April in the 18 runner Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap won by Brave Falcon. He was drawn 16, the runner up was drawn 18 and the 3rd drawn 14. 9 of the first 10 finishers that day were drawn in double figures.
The 7f trip is on the round course and although it is left-handed, high draws have performed best in recent years. One explanation could be that low draws go off too quickly, but this is pure conjecture.
Over 1m1f, 1m4f and 1m6f there are very few races with 10 or more runners each year and hence it is impossible to conclude whether any clear draw bias exists or not.

1 comment:

Arjunane Denature said...

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