Ayr Draw Guide
On the straight course at Ayr they vary the position of the stalls, but regardless of stall position, high draws have the advantage. It seems that the bias is slightly stronger when the stalls are placed high as would be expected. In 2008 there were 14 handicaps with 10 or more runners of which the top third of the draw claimed 8 wins. The big sprint of the year at the course the Ayr Gold Cup saw a high draw bias with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th home all racing stands’ side (high).
On the round course there is a slight advantage to low draws over 7f, but the bias is traditionally stronger over 1m. Since 2005 14 of the 32 handicaps of 10+ runners over 1m have been won by one of the lowest three draws.
Beverley Draw Guide
The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)
Hence the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw. The general perception is that the bias is not as strong as it was a few years ago, and although this is probably the case, it is still one of the most potent biases in the country.
Over 7f100yds there is also a high draw bias. In 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps draws 6 or lower managed just 1 win between them in 10 races. Having said that, it is rare for individual races to be totally dominated by high draws.
Over 1m100yds the high draw bias at the turn of the century was very strong, but in recent years the bias has evened out. It now seems a fairly level playing field. It is a similar picture over 1m2f with high draws possibly having the slightest of advantages. Over 1m4f+ there is no draw bias.
Bath Draw Guide
Over 5f11yds there have been twenty 10+ runner handicaps in the past four seasons of which 10 were won by the top third of the draw. Low draws can go off too quickly and get picked off late by higher drawn horses coming fast and late. Over 5f161yds there seems little in the draw.
On the round course there seems little bias of real significance.
Brighton Draw Guide
Low draws are perceived to have the advantage over 5f, but middle to high draws have more than held their own in recent years in fields of 10 or more runners. Too often front-runners go off far too quickly in the first two furlongs and hence tire and get collared late on. It is rare to get genuinely soft ground at Brighton, but if there is jockeys tend to bring their runners near side which can give high draws the advantage.
Over 6f very low draws have had a slight edge in recent years, but it is not significant enough to make money following them. As with 5f races, on genuinely soft ground a high draw bias can occur if the horses come near side.
Over 7f and 1m there is no significant draw bias, and this is also the case at all longer distances at the course.
Carlisle Draw Guide
Over the two sprints there is usually an advantage to higher draws, especially on better ground. An example of this occurred on 16th June 2008 in the Lakeland Willow Water handicap where three of the top four draws filled the first three places. The very highest drawn horse has performed extremely well in the last 4 seasons winning 8 of the 41 handicaps with 10+ runners. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £74.00 to £1 level stakes (ROI +180.5%). On soft ground the bias often reverses to low draws as runners tend to tack across to the stands’ rail (low).
At 7f or more there is no apparent draw bias.
Catterick Draw Guide
Very low draws have a decent advantage especially on good or firmer. The 4 lowest draws have provided 17 of the 38 winners in 10+ runner handicaps over the past four years. Indeed, you could have made a profit by simply backing the four lowest draws in every qualifying race. For punters who like the straight forecast bet, then it may be worth considering perming the three lowest draws in 5f handicaps of 10 or more runners. From 2005 to 2008 this bet would have yielded a profit of £229.09 (ROI +100.5%) to 6 x £1 perms in each qualifying race. In soft ground the bias can turn around with high draws having an edge, but this has been less apparent more recently.
Over 6f low draws do have an advantage, but recent results show that you can actually win from any part of the draw. Over 7f there is a perceived low draw bias, but one does not actually exist. At 1m4f or more there is no draw bias.
Chepstow Draw Guide
From 2000 to 2003 over a mile on the straight course high draws had a massive edge - in all races of 10 or more runners there were 32 races of which 23 were won by horses drawn in the top “third” of the draw, with 15 of them coming from one of the two highest numbered stalls. There were only 14 handicap races during this period, but 12 went to the top third. These were quite remarkable statistics. However, from 2005 to 2008 there have been 60 races with the draw splits thus:
Top "third" of the draw: 21.7% (win), 27.2% (placed)Middle "third" of the draw: 35% (win), 34.4% (placed)Bottom "third" of the draw: 43.3% (win), 38.3% (placed)
Hence, it now seems that high draws at are a slight disadvantage. The high draw bias at the start of the decade was also prevalent over 5 to 7f, but this has also disappeared.
On the round course there is no draw bias.
Chester Draw Guide
The 5f trip has long been one of the strongest draw biases and there is still a strong a significant advantage to low draws. If we look at the result of 10+ handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 8.3% (win), 11.1% (placed)Middle "third" of the draw: 25% (win), 38.9% (placed)Bottom "third" of the draw: 66.7% (win), 50% (placed)
Over half of the races went to stalls 1 or 2. Not surprisingly A blind profit would have been made by backing both draws 1 and 2.
Over 6f low draws continue to have the advantage although there are far fewer 6f races per season at the course. In 2008 there were 9 races in total of which only 4 contained 10 or runners. All 9 races were won by horses drawn in the bottom four stalls.
Over 7f low to middle draws have provided 26 of the last 28 winners in races with 10+ runners. In 2007/08 there were 9 handicaps with 10 or more runners and all 9 races were won by horses drawn in the bottom half of the draw.
The extended 7f trip (7f122yds) sees a more even playing field in terms of the draw. Indeed low draws have actually performed marginally worse than middle / high draws in recent years.
Over 1m2f or more one would prefer to be drawn lower rather than high, but there is essentially not much in it.
Doncaster Draw Guide
Over 5f there used to be a strong high draw bias. High draws still have an edge although it is not as strong as in the past. The high draw bias though remains over 6f and seemed fairly strong in 2008 with the top half of the draw accounting for 9 of the 10 handicaps with 10+ runners. The last 6f handicap of the season on 8th November 2008, the Totesport.com Nursery saw four of the five highest drawn horses filling the first four places.
Over 7f there is often little in the draw, although when a big field lines up higher draws tend to come out best. Over 1m there used to be a low draw bias in big fields but more recently it seems you can win from anywhere, although you would still prefer to be close to either rail rather than a more central berth.
Over 1m2f on the round course low draws traditionally have been best although in 2008 there was not much in it.
Epsom Draw Guide
There have only been 9 handicaps with 10+ runners over 5f in the past four seasons and hence it is difficult to come to any concrete draw conclusions. Traditionally a higher draw has been preferred, but the recent stats indicate there is not much in it. The same limited data sample occurs over 6f, but low draws seem to have an edge here, which again has traditionally been the case.
Over 7f low to middle draws hold sway, but there seems to be little in the draw at distances of 1m114yds or more.
Goodwood Draw Guide
On the straight course (5/6f) middle to high draws have an advantage in big fields, but the bias is not as strong as it used to be. The big sprint at the course the Stewards Cup used to be totally dominated by high draws, but this has not been the case in the last two years.
Over 7f there used to be a very strong high draw bias but Goodwood spent most of 2008 moving the far rail meaning that the fastest strip of ground was not used. Indeed, in 2008, only two of the fifteen 7f races with 10+ runners were won by horses from double figure draws. Compare this with 2007 when double figure draws won 9 of the 20 races.
Over 1m it has been a similar story although the one race where a high draw bias continues to be strong is in the Totesport mile (formerly known as the Golden Mile). The race is run on the Friday of the Glorious 5 day meeting and the far rail is pushed back out to its old position. In 2008 the first five horses home were drawn 20, 19, 18, 17 and 16 (18 runners). With the race having 2 non runners it can be seen that the five highest drawn horses filled the first five positions.
Over 1m1f or more there is no draw bias.
Folkestone Draw Guide
Gone are the days of playing high draws on the straight course in soft or heavy ground. These days it pays to be drawn low over 5 and 6f, especially if you have early pace to grab the favoured rail. In 2008, 7 of the 13 races with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in the lowest three stalls.
Over 7f there seems little in the draw, and this is also the case on the round course.
Hamilton Draw Guide
For many years there was a high draw bias on the straight course which strengthened in softer conditions. However, in recent years there has been little in it, although in 2008 the bias seemed to swing to low. There were 17 handicaps over 5/6f with 10+ runners in 2008 of which 10 were won by the bottom third of the draw. A good example of the low draw bias came on the 5th June 2008 in the Sam Collingwood-Cameron Handicap. The 16-runner 6f handicap saw the first five horses home drawn 5, 2, 9, 1 and 6.
Over 1m high draws have a slight advantage, while over 1m1f the high draw bias seems stronger. Indeed 10 of the last 14 handicaps with 10+ runners over 1m1f have been won by the top third of the draw
Haydock Draw Guide
On the straight course (5/6f) middle to high draws have a slight advantage. There are not many races over 7f, but low draws definitely have the edge. At 1m+ there is no draw bias. Dont want to be on either side of outer .
Kempton Draw Guide
Over 5f there is a strong high draw bias with 20 of the 36 10+ runner handicaps to the end of 2008 going to the top third of the draw. Backing the highest drawn horse “blind” would have yielded a profit of £28.50 (ROI +79.2%). The three lowest drawn stalls have provided just 4 of the 36 winners. The bias is less strong at 6 and 7f but high draws still have a decent advantage at both distances.
Lingfield Draw Guide
TURF COURSE
High draws have had the advantage on the straight course (5-7f140yds) over the past few seasons. A good example of the bias occurred on 14th June where the three races on the straight course showed a huge advantage to high drawn runners. The first five home in the 11 runner 5f maiden were drawn 13, 11, 5, 10 and 12 (2 non runners); the first three home in the 17 runner 6f handicap were drawn 18, 13 and 14 (1 non runner); the first five home in the 18 runner 7f handicap were drawn 16, 18, 17, 13 and 10.
Digging deeper we find that in 10+ runner races over 5f from 2005 to 2008 the highest drawn horse has provided 5 of the 17 winners for a profit of £33.25 (ROI +195.6%). Over 6f there have been 54 races with 10+ runners and stall 1 has recorded no wins.
On the round course there is no draw bias.
Musselburgh Draw Guide
It is perceived that low draws have the advantage over 5f, but the recent draw statistics do not back this up. Indeed from 2005 to 2008 in all 10+ runner races draw 1 managed to win just 3 of the 78 races! In 2008 there were 18 such races with the draw split of 4 wins to the bottom third of the draw, 8 wins to the middle third, and 6 to the top third. The perceived low draw bias is also supposed to strengthen on good to soft or softer. They do seem to perform better under such conditions, but any low draw bias is minimal.
On the round course over 7f/1m there can be a slight advantage to higher draws, and low draws do tend to struggle a little over the 1m trip.
Newbury Draw Guide
There are very few 10+ runner handicaps at Newbury each year and there seems little in the draw. Having said that, high draws have performed below par recently. There is nothing in the draw from 6f to 1m — races that are also run on the straight course, although as with many tracks you occasionally an unexplained draw bias. Indeed twice in the past 3 years there were 7f handicaps that saw the first three home drawn in the top three stalls. However, it seems more a course to look for outliers (horses that have run well from a poor draw).
On the round course there is no draw bias
Newcastle Draw Guide
Over 5f it pays to be drawn either very high or very low. The size of the field can be crucial as in smaller fields they tend not to split into two groups. Over 6f however, you would usually be happier drawn high even in big fields. The one problem with Newcastle is that strong biases do occur, but not all the time. Having said that, it would have paid dividends perming the three highest draws in 5f/6f handicaps of 10 or more runners. From 2005 to 2008 this bet would have yielded a profit of £210.07 (ROI +71.5%) to 6 x £1 perms in each qualifying race.
Over 7f there is an advantage to be being drawn very high. Indeed backing the highest drawn horse “blind” in all 10+ runner handicaps from 2005 to 2008 would have yielded a profit of £31.50 (ROI +101.6%).
1m races are round on both the straight and the round course. On the straight course high draws have a slight edge, while there is no bias over the round 1m. There is also now draw bias at longer distances on the round course.
Nottingham Draw Guide
Over 5f in 2008 low draws had the best of it, and over the past four seasons low draws have definitely had the advantage in soft / heavy ground. Over 6f in 2008 there did not seem too much in the draw and overall this extra furlong seems to balance things out. Occasionally individual meetings can have a strong rail bias and if there is more than one sprint on the card then you should be able to take advantage of it in later races.
Over 1m very high draws are at a slight disadvantage, especially when the field size gets to 15 or more. There is no draw bias at longer distances.
Pontefract Draw Guide
Over 5f low draws tend to have a slight advantage on fast ground. However, it is rarely a very strong bias. Over 6f in 2008 it was interesting to note that the lowest four draws failed to register in a single success in the 8 handicaps with 10+ runners. Quite often over 6f very low draws go off too quickly and fail to last home on this stiff track. On good to soft or softer going, especially over 6f higher draws can have an advantage especially the wider they race in the straight.
Over 1m low draws have a slight advantage over middle draws that in turn have a slight advantage over higher draws. In the fifty one handicaps with 10+ runners in the past four seasons 13 were won by one of the two lowest drawn horses.
Over 1m2f or more there is no draw bias
Redcar Draw Guide
The straight course sees races from 5f to 1m and generally the runner tend to run down the centre of the course rather than against either rail. Hence middle draws can have a slight edge, more especially over 5 and 6f. However, any bias is minimal. Over 7f and 1m you can win from any draw position and it is rare for a race, let alone a meeting to display anything significant in terms of draw bias.
There is no draw bias on the round course
Ripon Draw Guide
Over 5 and 6f in very big fields it normally pays to be drawn close to either rail, although unusually in 2008 middle draws more than held their own. The usual rule of thumb is that on good to firm ground you want to be drawn low, while on good to soft or softer you want to be drawn high. The big sprint at the course is the 6f Great St Wilfrid and twice in the past four years very high draws have totally dominated. In 2007 the first five horses home were drawn 22, 20, 9, 21 and 17; in 2005 the first five home were drawn 23, 20, 22, 17 and 16. In 2008, six of the first seven home raced far side (high) although the very highest draws did not actually dominate on this occasion.
Over 1m high draws have a decent advantage especially in big fields. There is no draw bias at longer distances.
Sandown Draw Guide
In the mid 1990s the 5f trip was one of the most biased in the country in terms of the draw. High draws totally dominated. However, since then the bias has been far less evident and it is usually due to the far rail being moved inwards from time to time. For the first part of 2008 the high draw bias seemed back with a vengeance — 10 of the first 11 races of the year with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in the top three stalls. However, the bias disappeared completely later in the season with low draws landing 5 of the last 6 races.
Over 7f and 1m low draws are a slight disadvantage but it is not insurmountable by any means. At 1m1f or more there is no draw bias.
Salisbury Draw Guide
There are very few handicaps over 5f at Salisbury but when there are it usually pays to be drawn high near to the far rail. Having said that it probably more down to pace than draw, as over 6f-1m there tends to be little in the draw.
There is no draw bias at longer distances of 1m2f+.
Southwell Draw Guide
ALL-WEATHER
Over 5f on the straight course very high draws tend to be at a disadvantage. This is because they are often forced to rail under the near side rail where the ground is slower. From 6f upwards there is no draw bias.
TURF
There are very few race meetings on the turf course, but over 6 and 7f low draws do have a slight advantage
Thirsk Draw Guide
Over 5f high draws have a significant advantage. If we look at the result of 10+ handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: (%):Middle "third" of the draw: (%): Bottom "third" of the draw: (%)Winning percentage 63.3 16.7 20 Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 60 17.8 22.2
At present this C&D looks the most draw biased in the country. Interestingly the bias is far less strong over 6f, although a high draw is generally preferable. In the past three seasons the bigger the field, the bigger the edge to higher draws over 6f. One point worth noting however, is although soft ground is rare, when it is genuinely soft, low draws become much more competitive and sometimes have the upper hand when the field is stretched right across the track.
Over 7f there is a perceived 7f bias, but generally you can win from anywhere. There is no draw bias at 1m or further.
Warwick Draw Guide
Low draws have the advantage over 5f, 5½f and 6f, with the bias seemingly stronger over 6. Of the fifteen 10+ runner handicaps over 6f since 2005, 11 were won by horses from the bottom third of the draw.
Over 7f and 1m low draws continue to hold the advantage, and draw 1 has a particular good record in 10+ runner handicaps (8 wins from 44).
Over 1m3f the low draw bias seems very strong and again draw 1 has proved very successful with 7 wins from 27 in 10+ runner handicaps.
Windsor Draw Guide
In recent years the course has seen numerous rail movements and essentially there is nothing in the draw on good or firmer ground over 5/6f. However, on good to soft or softer low draws often have the edge as they swing wide and end up against the far rail. The Fay Watts 25th Birthday Apprentice Handicap on 7th July 2008 was a good example of this softer ground bias — four of the first five horses home came from the bottom five stalls. Over 1m or further there is no draw bias.
Wolverhampton Draw Guide
Over 5f low draws have traditionally had the advantage and although it may not be as strong as it used to be, you would definitely prefer a low draw over a high one. Over 6f, once again a lower draw is preferable but the advantage is slight. Over 7f or further there is no draw bias.
Yarmouth Draw Guide
On the straight course there is usually little in the draw, although in 2008 over the two sprint trips (5/6f) high draws seemed to have the edge. It is worth keeping an eye on early next season to see if that trend continues. On the round course there is no draw bias.
York Draw Guide
On the straight course over 5/6f they tend to race down the middle steering clear of either rail. Middle draws seem to have a very slight edge over 6f, but it is not that significant. On the round course low draws have a slight edge at all distances up to 1m4f, although it seems at its strongest at 1m. This bias over 1m becomes stronger on good to firm ground
Over 1m+ there is no significant draw bias
Sunday, March 29, 2009
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ANY CHANCE OF UPDATING YOUR DRAW ANALYSIS PLEASE ?
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