Ayr Draw Guide
On the straight course at Ayr they vary the position of the stalls, but regardless of stall position, high draws have the advantage. It seems that the bias is slightly stronger when the stalls are placed high as would be expected. In 2008 there were 14 handicaps with 10 or more runners of which the top third of the draw claimed 8 wins. The big sprint of the year at the course the Ayr Gold Cup saw a high draw bias with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th home all racing stands’ side (high).
On the round course there is a slight advantage to low draws over 7f, but the bias is traditionally stronger over 1m. Since 2005 14 of the 32 handicaps of 10+ runners over 1m have been won by one of the lowest three draws.
Beverley Draw Guide
The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)
Hence the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw. The general perception is that the bias is not as strong as it was a few years ago, and although this is probably the case, it is still one of the most potent biases in the country.
Over 7f100yds there is also a high draw bias. In 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps draws 6 or lower managed just 1 win between them in 10 races. Having said that, it is rare for individual races to be totally dominated by high draws.
Over 1m100yds the high draw bias at the turn of the century was very strong, but in recent years the bias has evened out. It now seems a fairly level playing field. It is a similar picture over 1m2f with high draws possibly having the slightest of advantages. Over 1m4f+ there is no draw bias.
Bath Draw Guide
Over 5f11yds there have been twenty 10+ runner handicaps in the past four seasons of which 10 were won by the top third of the draw. Low draws can go off too quickly and get picked off late by higher drawn horses coming fast and late. Over 5f161yds there seems little in the draw.
On the round course there seems little bias of real significance.
Brighton Draw Guide
Low draws are perceived to have the advantage over 5f, but middle to high draws have more than held their own in recent years in fields of 10 or more runners. Too often front-runners go off far too quickly in the first two furlongs and hence tire and get collared late on. It is rare to get genuinely soft ground at Brighton, but if there is jockeys tend to bring their runners near side which can give high draws the advantage.
Over 6f very low draws have had a slight edge in recent years, but it is not significant enough to make money following them. As with 5f races, on genuinely soft ground a high draw bias can occur if the horses come near side.
Over 7f and 1m there is no significant draw bias, and this is also the case at all longer distances at the course.
Carlisle Draw Guide
Over the two sprints there is usually an advantage to higher draws, especially on better ground. An example of this occurred on 16th June 2008 in the Lakeland Willow Water handicap where three of the top four draws filled the first three places. The very highest drawn horse has performed extremely well in the last 4 seasons winning 8 of the 41 handicaps with 10+ runners. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £74.00 to £1 level stakes (ROI +180.5%). On soft ground the bias often reverses to low draws as runners tend to tack across to the stands’ rail (low).
At 7f or more there is no apparent draw bias.
Catterick Draw Guide
Very low draws have a decent advantage especially on good or firmer. The 4 lowest draws have provided 17 of the 38 winners in 10+ runner handicaps over the past four years. Indeed, you could have made a profit by simply backing the four lowest draws in every qualifying race. For punters who like the straight forecast bet, then it may be worth considering perming the three lowest draws in 5f handicaps of 10 or more runners. From 2005 to 2008 this bet would have yielded a profit of £229.09 (ROI +100.5%) to 6 x £1 perms in each qualifying race. In soft ground the bias can turn around with high draws having an edge, but this has been less apparent more recently.
Over 6f low draws do have an advantage, but recent results show that you can actually win from any part of the draw. Over 7f there is a perceived low draw bias, but one does not actually exist. At 1m4f or more there is no draw bias.
Chepstow Draw Guide
From 2000 to 2003 over a mile on the straight course high draws had a massive edge - in all races of 10 or more runners there were 32 races of which 23 were won by horses drawn in the top “third” of the draw, with 15 of them coming from one of the two highest numbered stalls. There were only 14 handicap races during this period, but 12 went to the top third. These were quite remarkable statistics. However, from 2005 to 2008 there have been 60 races with the draw splits thus:
Top "third" of the draw: 21.7% (win), 27.2% (placed)Middle "third" of the draw: 35% (win), 34.4% (placed)Bottom "third" of the draw: 43.3% (win), 38.3% (placed)
Hence, it now seems that high draws at are a slight disadvantage. The high draw bias at the start of the decade was also prevalent over 5 to 7f, but this has also disappeared.
On the round course there is no draw bias.
Chester Draw Guide
The 5f trip has long been one of the strongest draw biases and there is still a strong a significant advantage to low draws. If we look at the result of 10+ handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 8.3% (win), 11.1% (placed)Middle "third" of the draw: 25% (win), 38.9% (placed)Bottom "third" of the draw: 66.7% (win), 50% (placed)
Over half of the races went to stalls 1 or 2. Not surprisingly A blind profit would have been made by backing both draws 1 and 2.
Over 6f low draws continue to have the advantage although there are far fewer 6f races per season at the course. In 2008 there were 9 races in total of which only 4 contained 10 or runners. All 9 races were won by horses drawn in the bottom four stalls.
Over 7f low to middle draws have provided 26 of the last 28 winners in races with 10+ runners. In 2007/08 there were 9 handicaps with 10 or more runners and all 9 races were won by horses drawn in the bottom half of the draw.
The extended 7f trip (7f122yds) sees a more even playing field in terms of the draw. Indeed low draws have actually performed marginally worse than middle / high draws in recent years.
Over 1m2f or more one would prefer to be drawn lower rather than high, but there is essentially not much in it.
Doncaster Draw Guide
Over 5f there used to be a strong high draw bias. High draws still have an edge although it is not as strong as in the past. The high draw bias though remains over 6f and seemed fairly strong in 2008 with the top half of the draw accounting for 9 of the 10 handicaps with 10+ runners. The last 6f handicap of the season on 8th November 2008, the Totesport.com Nursery saw four of the five highest drawn horses filling the first four places.
Over 7f there is often little in the draw, although when a big field lines up higher draws tend to come out best. Over 1m there used to be a low draw bias in big fields but more recently it seems you can win from anywhere, although you would still prefer to be close to either rail rather than a more central berth.
Over 1m2f on the round course low draws traditionally have been best although in 2008 there was not much in it.
Epsom Draw Guide
There have only been 9 handicaps with 10+ runners over 5f in the past four seasons and hence it is difficult to come to any concrete draw conclusions. Traditionally a higher draw has been preferred, but the recent stats indicate there is not much in it. The same limited data sample occurs over 6f, but low draws seem to have an edge here, which again has traditionally been the case.
Over 7f low to middle draws hold sway, but there seems to be little in the draw at distances of 1m114yds or more.
Goodwood Draw Guide
On the straight course (5/6f) middle to high draws have an advantage in big fields, but the bias is not as strong as it used to be. The big sprint at the course the Stewards Cup used to be totally dominated by high draws, but this has not been the case in the last two years.
Over 7f there used to be a very strong high draw bias but Goodwood spent most of 2008 moving the far rail meaning that the fastest strip of ground was not used. Indeed, in 2008, only two of the fifteen 7f races with 10+ runners were won by horses from double figure draws. Compare this with 2007 when double figure draws won 9 of the 20 races.
Over 1m it has been a similar story although the one race where a high draw bias continues to be strong is in the Totesport mile (formerly known as the Golden Mile). The race is run on the Friday of the Glorious 5 day meeting and the far rail is pushed back out to its old position. In 2008 the first five horses home were drawn 20, 19, 18, 17 and 16 (18 runners). With the race having 2 non runners it can be seen that the five highest drawn horses filled the first five positions.
Over 1m1f or more there is no draw bias.
Folkestone Draw Guide
Gone are the days of playing high draws on the straight course in soft or heavy ground. These days it pays to be drawn low over 5 and 6f, especially if you have early pace to grab the favoured rail. In 2008, 7 of the 13 races with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in the lowest three stalls.
Over 7f there seems little in the draw, and this is also the case on the round course.
Hamilton Draw Guide
For many years there was a high draw bias on the straight course which strengthened in softer conditions. However, in recent years there has been little in it, although in 2008 the bias seemed to swing to low. There were 17 handicaps over 5/6f with 10+ runners in 2008 of which 10 were won by the bottom third of the draw. A good example of the low draw bias came on the 5th June 2008 in the Sam Collingwood-Cameron Handicap. The 16-runner 6f handicap saw the first five horses home drawn 5, 2, 9, 1 and 6.
Over 1m high draws have a slight advantage, while over 1m1f the high draw bias seems stronger. Indeed 10 of the last 14 handicaps with 10+ runners over 1m1f have been won by the top third of the draw
Haydock Draw Guide
On the straight course (5/6f) middle to high draws have a slight advantage. There are not many races over 7f, but low draws definitely have the edge. At 1m+ there is no draw bias. Dont want to be on either side of outer .
Kempton Draw Guide
Over 5f there is a strong high draw bias with 20 of the 36 10+ runner handicaps to the end of 2008 going to the top third of the draw. Backing the highest drawn horse “blind” would have yielded a profit of £28.50 (ROI +79.2%). The three lowest drawn stalls have provided just 4 of the 36 winners. The bias is less strong at 6 and 7f but high draws still have a decent advantage at both distances.
Lingfield Draw Guide
TURF COURSE
High draws have had the advantage on the straight course (5-7f140yds) over the past few seasons. A good example of the bias occurred on 14th June where the three races on the straight course showed a huge advantage to high drawn runners. The first five home in the 11 runner 5f maiden were drawn 13, 11, 5, 10 and 12 (2 non runners); the first three home in the 17 runner 6f handicap were drawn 18, 13 and 14 (1 non runner); the first five home in the 18 runner 7f handicap were drawn 16, 18, 17, 13 and 10.
Digging deeper we find that in 10+ runner races over 5f from 2005 to 2008 the highest drawn horse has provided 5 of the 17 winners for a profit of £33.25 (ROI +195.6%). Over 6f there have been 54 races with 10+ runners and stall 1 has recorded no wins.
On the round course there is no draw bias.
Musselburgh Draw Guide
It is perceived that low draws have the advantage over 5f, but the recent draw statistics do not back this up. Indeed from 2005 to 2008 in all 10+ runner races draw 1 managed to win just 3 of the 78 races! In 2008 there were 18 such races with the draw split of 4 wins to the bottom third of the draw, 8 wins to the middle third, and 6 to the top third. The perceived low draw bias is also supposed to strengthen on good to soft or softer. They do seem to perform better under such conditions, but any low draw bias is minimal.
On the round course over 7f/1m there can be a slight advantage to higher draws, and low draws do tend to struggle a little over the 1m trip.
Newbury Draw Guide
There are very few 10+ runner handicaps at Newbury each year and there seems little in the draw. Having said that, high draws have performed below par recently. There is nothing in the draw from 6f to 1m — races that are also run on the straight course, although as with many tracks you occasionally an unexplained draw bias. Indeed twice in the past 3 years there were 7f handicaps that saw the first three home drawn in the top three stalls. However, it seems more a course to look for outliers (horses that have run well from a poor draw).
On the round course there is no draw bias
Newcastle Draw Guide
Over 5f it pays to be drawn either very high or very low. The size of the field can be crucial as in smaller fields they tend not to split into two groups. Over 6f however, you would usually be happier drawn high even in big fields. The one problem with Newcastle is that strong biases do occur, but not all the time. Having said that, it would have paid dividends perming the three highest draws in 5f/6f handicaps of 10 or more runners. From 2005 to 2008 this bet would have yielded a profit of £210.07 (ROI +71.5%) to 6 x £1 perms in each qualifying race.
Over 7f there is an advantage to be being drawn very high. Indeed backing the highest drawn horse “blind” in all 10+ runner handicaps from 2005 to 2008 would have yielded a profit of £31.50 (ROI +101.6%).
1m races are round on both the straight and the round course. On the straight course high draws have a slight edge, while there is no bias over the round 1m. There is also now draw bias at longer distances on the round course.
Nottingham Draw Guide
Over 5f in 2008 low draws had the best of it, and over the past four seasons low draws have definitely had the advantage in soft / heavy ground. Over 6f in 2008 there did not seem too much in the draw and overall this extra furlong seems to balance things out. Occasionally individual meetings can have a strong rail bias and if there is more than one sprint on the card then you should be able to take advantage of it in later races.
Over 1m very high draws are at a slight disadvantage, especially when the field size gets to 15 or more. There is no draw bias at longer distances.
Pontefract Draw Guide
Over 5f low draws tend to have a slight advantage on fast ground. However, it is rarely a very strong bias. Over 6f in 2008 it was interesting to note that the lowest four draws failed to register in a single success in the 8 handicaps with 10+ runners. Quite often over 6f very low draws go off too quickly and fail to last home on this stiff track. On good to soft or softer going, especially over 6f higher draws can have an advantage especially the wider they race in the straight.
Over 1m low draws have a slight advantage over middle draws that in turn have a slight advantage over higher draws. In the fifty one handicaps with 10+ runners in the past four seasons 13 were won by one of the two lowest drawn horses.
Over 1m2f or more there is no draw bias
Redcar Draw Guide
The straight course sees races from 5f to 1m and generally the runner tend to run down the centre of the course rather than against either rail. Hence middle draws can have a slight edge, more especially over 5 and 6f. However, any bias is minimal. Over 7f and 1m you can win from any draw position and it is rare for a race, let alone a meeting to display anything significant in terms of draw bias.
There is no draw bias on the round course
Ripon Draw Guide
Over 5 and 6f in very big fields it normally pays to be drawn close to either rail, although unusually in 2008 middle draws more than held their own. The usual rule of thumb is that on good to firm ground you want to be drawn low, while on good to soft or softer you want to be drawn high. The big sprint at the course is the 6f Great St Wilfrid and twice in the past four years very high draws have totally dominated. In 2007 the first five horses home were drawn 22, 20, 9, 21 and 17; in 2005 the first five home were drawn 23, 20, 22, 17 and 16. In 2008, six of the first seven home raced far side (high) although the very highest draws did not actually dominate on this occasion.
Over 1m high draws have a decent advantage especially in big fields. There is no draw bias at longer distances.
Sandown Draw Guide
In the mid 1990s the 5f trip was one of the most biased in the country in terms of the draw. High draws totally dominated. However, since then the bias has been far less evident and it is usually due to the far rail being moved inwards from time to time. For the first part of 2008 the high draw bias seemed back with a vengeance — 10 of the first 11 races of the year with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in the top three stalls. However, the bias disappeared completely later in the season with low draws landing 5 of the last 6 races.
Over 7f and 1m low draws are a slight disadvantage but it is not insurmountable by any means. At 1m1f or more there is no draw bias.
Salisbury Draw Guide
There are very few handicaps over 5f at Salisbury but when there are it usually pays to be drawn high near to the far rail. Having said that it probably more down to pace than draw, as over 6f-1m there tends to be little in the draw.
There is no draw bias at longer distances of 1m2f+.
Southwell Draw Guide
ALL-WEATHER
Over 5f on the straight course very high draws tend to be at a disadvantage. This is because they are often forced to rail under the near side rail where the ground is slower. From 6f upwards there is no draw bias.
TURF
There are very few race meetings on the turf course, but over 6 and 7f low draws do have a slight advantage
Thirsk Draw Guide
Over 5f high draws have a significant advantage. If we look at the result of 10+ handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: (%):Middle "third" of the draw: (%): Bottom "third" of the draw: (%)Winning percentage 63.3 16.7 20 Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 60 17.8 22.2
At present this C&D looks the most draw biased in the country. Interestingly the bias is far less strong over 6f, although a high draw is generally preferable. In the past three seasons the bigger the field, the bigger the edge to higher draws over 6f. One point worth noting however, is although soft ground is rare, when it is genuinely soft, low draws become much more competitive and sometimes have the upper hand when the field is stretched right across the track.
Over 7f there is a perceived 7f bias, but generally you can win from anywhere. There is no draw bias at 1m or further.
Warwick Draw Guide
Low draws have the advantage over 5f, 5½f and 6f, with the bias seemingly stronger over 6. Of the fifteen 10+ runner handicaps over 6f since 2005, 11 were won by horses from the bottom third of the draw.
Over 7f and 1m low draws continue to hold the advantage, and draw 1 has a particular good record in 10+ runner handicaps (8 wins from 44).
Over 1m3f the low draw bias seems very strong and again draw 1 has proved very successful with 7 wins from 27 in 10+ runner handicaps.
Windsor Draw Guide
In recent years the course has seen numerous rail movements and essentially there is nothing in the draw on good or firmer ground over 5/6f. However, on good to soft or softer low draws often have the edge as they swing wide and end up against the far rail. The Fay Watts 25th Birthday Apprentice Handicap on 7th July 2008 was a good example of this softer ground bias — four of the first five horses home came from the bottom five stalls. Over 1m or further there is no draw bias.
Wolverhampton Draw Guide
Over 5f low draws have traditionally had the advantage and although it may not be as strong as it used to be, you would definitely prefer a low draw over a high one. Over 6f, once again a lower draw is preferable but the advantage is slight. Over 7f or further there is no draw bias.
Yarmouth Draw Guide
On the straight course there is usually little in the draw, although in 2008 over the two sprint trips (5/6f) high draws seemed to have the edge. It is worth keeping an eye on early next season to see if that trend continues. On the round course there is no draw bias.
York Draw Guide
On the straight course over 5/6f they tend to race down the middle steering clear of either rail. Middle draws seem to have a very slight edge over 6f, but it is not that significant. On the round course low draws have a slight edge at all distances up to 1m4f, although it seems at its strongest at 1m. This bias over 1m becomes stronger on good to firm ground
Over 1m+ there is no significant draw bias
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Draw Adv Ireland - courtesy David Renham
Ballinrobe Draw Guide
Most of the handicaps over 6f see 15 or 16 runners line up, but they have not raced over this trip for the past two seasons. In these big field handicaps middle to high draws have a definite advantage. Over 1m1f it is possible to win from any draw position but high is best.
Cork Draw Guide
Over the two sprint trips there seems very little in the draw. However, at 7f there is a strong bias with high draws having a definite advantage. In the past four seasons there have been 15 handicap races with 10 or more runners over 7f and draws 1 to 4 have failed to win a race between them. A good example of a race with a strong high draw bias came on 24th August 2008 in the 7f Newmarket handicap. The first six horses home were drawn 15, 11, 18, 14, 6 and 16. Gimli’s Treasure who was drawn 6 that day did best of the disadvantaged low draws, and proved that was a good effort as two runs later he won at 20/1 at Gowran Park.
From 1m to 1m2f low draws continue to struggle as high to middle draws have an advantage. There is no draw bias over 1m4f and further
Down Royal Draw Guide
Over 5f high to middle draws have the advantage. This is perhaps no surprise as higher draws drawn next to the inside rail. The 5f trip turns quite sharply right around two furlongs from home which further helps higher draws. Over 7f a similar draw bias exists, although in 2008 low draws won more than their share of races. However, over the past four seasons, the top third of the draw have provided 28 of the first three finishers, while the bottom third of the draw have managed just 11. There is no draw bias over 1m2f and further.
Dundalk Draw Guide
Over 5f low to middle draws seem to hold a slight advantage, while over 6f the stats suggest the bias to low draws is stronger. Around 50% of 10+ runner 6f handicaps have been won by the bottom third of the draw. Over 7f there seems to be no advantage in the draw, while at 1m low draws statistically have a very small edge. There is no draw bias over 1m3f and further.
WOULDNT AGREE WITH THIS AT ALL _ Draw at all dists favours Low.
Bellewstown Draw Guide
There have been only 24 races over 5f over the past four seasons. Of these, 19 of them have had 10 or more runners, and the lowest four draws have combined to win just one race between them. This may come as a surprise as the 5f trip at Bellewstown turns left-handed with around 2f to go. Over 5f it seems that middle to high draws actually have the advantage, and it does pay to race up with or close to the pace.
Over 1 mile low draws do seem to hold the advantage. Draw 1 has a particularly good record in 10+ runner handicaps registering 6 wins from the 26 races over the past four seasons. Backing all horses drawn in the lowest stall in these races would have produced a profit of £17.50 to £1 level stakes (ROI +67.3%).
Fairyhouse Draw Guide
Over 6f there is occasionally a high draw bias and this was demonstrated on 189th October 2008 in the Irish Stallion Farms Joe McGrath European Breeders Fund Handicap where the first four horses home in this 16-runner race were drawn in 17, 18, 16 and 14 (2 non runners). Hence the top three draws filled the first three places with the fifth highest drawn horse coming 4th. The high draw bias has traditionally been at its strongest on yielding or softer going. There have only been five 10+ runner handicaps on this type of ground in the past four years, but 10 of the 15 top three positions have been secured by high draws.
Over 7f high draws once again have the edge. 15 of the 21 races with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in a double figure stall. Once again it looks that this bias becomes slightly stronger on easy ground. Over 1m1f and 1m2f, low draws again struggle and a middle to high berth has been a definite advantage in recent years. There is no draw bias over 1m4f and further
Galway Draw Guide
There are a good number of races over 7f over a season and the draw stats point to a middle to high draw bias. In 10+ runner handicaps the top five stalls have provided 13 wins compared with 5 wins for the bottom five stalls. The last handicap race of 2008 the CCTV Venue Control Handicap saw the top three draws come 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Over 1m, the stats seem to suggest the bias evens out, however the 1m4f trip has seen low draws really struggle in recent years. Whether this is simply an anomaly or not it is difficult to say.
Gowran Draw Guide
A few years ago over 7f low draws did best on faster ground, while high draws did best on softer. However, there seems little in the draw these days at this distance. Indeed overall it is course that offers no real draw bias at any distance. - I FEEL A DEFINATE BIAS TO HIGH.
Killarney Draw Guide
There are no races over sprint trips at Killarney and there is no draw bias at any of the trips of 1m+.
Leopardstown Draw Guide
There have only been four 10 runner+ handicaps over 6f in the past four years so it is difficult to be concrete about any biases. Looking at the all race stats there seems little in it. Over 7f there has been no consistent bias one way or the other, but occasionally a strong bias can exist. For example on 27th October in the 18-runner 7f J.R.A Nursery, the first seven home were drawn 16, 10, 15, 14, 7, 13, and 17. The best finishing position for the bottom third of the draw (draws 1 to 6) was 9th.
Over 1m, low to middle draws seem to have a slight advantage, but it does not seem that significant. There is no draw bias over 1m1f and further.
Limerick Draw Guide
Over 7f and 1m high draws seemed to have an advantage in 2005/06, but that has not been the case in the last two years where lower draws have certainly won their fair share. There is no draw bias over 1m3f and further. I FEEL HIGH HAS DEF ADV<
Naas Draw Guide
There seems to be a slight advantage to those drawn high over 5f, although the sample is very small and one cannot be dogmatic about it. There seems a similar strength bias over 6f, but again nothing to go overboard about. The sprint track is straight and quite wide, but gets narrower in the final 1½f. The runners tend to congregate down the centre.
Races of 7f or more are run on the round course and despite it being left-handed there is no sign of any low draw bias. The reason this may be the case is that they run around 3f before starting to turn left so wide (high) draws are not necessarily stuck out wide by the time they reach the long sweeping turn. There is no draw bias over 1m and further.
Navan Draw Guide
After 1½f in sprints the straight course narrows and hence the runners congregate centre to far side. There seems little in the draw at the two sprint trips. On the round course the draw seems very fair at all distances from 1m up to 1m5f.
Roscommon Draw Guide
There are no sprints at this track, but over 7f there is a definite advantage to high draws. Of the 21 handicaps with 10+ runners in the past four seasons, 13 have been won by high draws. A good example of the high drawn bias occurred on June 8th 2008 in the 14 runner Dermot Hughes Toyota Car Sales Handicap. Funatfuntasia the winner was drawn 14, while the next three horses home were drawn 13, 9 and 11.
Over 1m2f high to middle draws have a slight advantage, while there seems little in it over 1m4f.
Tipperary Draw Guide
The 5f sprint trip is raced on a straight course and low draws seem to be at a disadvantage, with middle to high draws winning 23 of 26 handicaps with 10+ runners over the past four seasons. A good example of the bias occurred on 10th April in the 18 runner Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap won by Brave Falcon. He was drawn 16, the runner up was drawn 18 and the 3rd drawn 14. 9 of the first 10 finishers that day were drawn in double figures.
The 7f trip is on the round course and although it is left-handed, high draws have performed best in recent years. One explanation could be that low draws go off too quickly, but this is pure conjecture.
Over 1m1f, 1m4f and 1m6f there are very few races with 10 or more runners each year and hence it is impossible to conclude whether any clear draw bias exists or not.
Most of the handicaps over 6f see 15 or 16 runners line up, but they have not raced over this trip for the past two seasons. In these big field handicaps middle to high draws have a definite advantage. Over 1m1f it is possible to win from any draw position but high is best.
Cork Draw Guide
Over the two sprint trips there seems very little in the draw. However, at 7f there is a strong bias with high draws having a definite advantage. In the past four seasons there have been 15 handicap races with 10 or more runners over 7f and draws 1 to 4 have failed to win a race between them. A good example of a race with a strong high draw bias came on 24th August 2008 in the 7f Newmarket handicap. The first six horses home were drawn 15, 11, 18, 14, 6 and 16. Gimli’s Treasure who was drawn 6 that day did best of the disadvantaged low draws, and proved that was a good effort as two runs later he won at 20/1 at Gowran Park.
From 1m to 1m2f low draws continue to struggle as high to middle draws have an advantage. There is no draw bias over 1m4f and further
Down Royal Draw Guide
Over 5f high to middle draws have the advantage. This is perhaps no surprise as higher draws drawn next to the inside rail. The 5f trip turns quite sharply right around two furlongs from home which further helps higher draws. Over 7f a similar draw bias exists, although in 2008 low draws won more than their share of races. However, over the past four seasons, the top third of the draw have provided 28 of the first three finishers, while the bottom third of the draw have managed just 11. There is no draw bias over 1m2f and further.
Dundalk Draw Guide
Over 5f low to middle draws seem to hold a slight advantage, while over 6f the stats suggest the bias to low draws is stronger. Around 50% of 10+ runner 6f handicaps have been won by the bottom third of the draw. Over 7f there seems to be no advantage in the draw, while at 1m low draws statistically have a very small edge. There is no draw bias over 1m3f and further.
WOULDNT AGREE WITH THIS AT ALL _ Draw at all dists favours Low.
Bellewstown Draw Guide
There have been only 24 races over 5f over the past four seasons. Of these, 19 of them have had 10 or more runners, and the lowest four draws have combined to win just one race between them. This may come as a surprise as the 5f trip at Bellewstown turns left-handed with around 2f to go. Over 5f it seems that middle to high draws actually have the advantage, and it does pay to race up with or close to the pace.
Over 1 mile low draws do seem to hold the advantage. Draw 1 has a particularly good record in 10+ runner handicaps registering 6 wins from the 26 races over the past four seasons. Backing all horses drawn in the lowest stall in these races would have produced a profit of £17.50 to £1 level stakes (ROI +67.3%).
Fairyhouse Draw Guide
Over 6f there is occasionally a high draw bias and this was demonstrated on 189th October 2008 in the Irish Stallion Farms Joe McGrath European Breeders Fund Handicap where the first four horses home in this 16-runner race were drawn in 17, 18, 16 and 14 (2 non runners). Hence the top three draws filled the first three places with the fifth highest drawn horse coming 4th. The high draw bias has traditionally been at its strongest on yielding or softer going. There have only been five 10+ runner handicaps on this type of ground in the past four years, but 10 of the 15 top three positions have been secured by high draws.
Over 7f high draws once again have the edge. 15 of the 21 races with 10+ runners were won by horses drawn in a double figure stall. Once again it looks that this bias becomes slightly stronger on easy ground. Over 1m1f and 1m2f, low draws again struggle and a middle to high berth has been a definite advantage in recent years. There is no draw bias over 1m4f and further
Galway Draw Guide
There are a good number of races over 7f over a season and the draw stats point to a middle to high draw bias. In 10+ runner handicaps the top five stalls have provided 13 wins compared with 5 wins for the bottom five stalls. The last handicap race of 2008 the CCTV Venue Control Handicap saw the top three draws come 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Over 1m, the stats seem to suggest the bias evens out, however the 1m4f trip has seen low draws really struggle in recent years. Whether this is simply an anomaly or not it is difficult to say.
Gowran Draw Guide
A few years ago over 7f low draws did best on faster ground, while high draws did best on softer. However, there seems little in the draw these days at this distance. Indeed overall it is course that offers no real draw bias at any distance. - I FEEL A DEFINATE BIAS TO HIGH.
Killarney Draw Guide
There are no races over sprint trips at Killarney and there is no draw bias at any of the trips of 1m+.
Leopardstown Draw Guide
There have only been four 10 runner+ handicaps over 6f in the past four years so it is difficult to be concrete about any biases. Looking at the all race stats there seems little in it. Over 7f there has been no consistent bias one way or the other, but occasionally a strong bias can exist. For example on 27th October in the 18-runner 7f J.R.A Nursery, the first seven home were drawn 16, 10, 15, 14, 7, 13, and 17. The best finishing position for the bottom third of the draw (draws 1 to 6) was 9th.
Over 1m, low to middle draws seem to have a slight advantage, but it does not seem that significant. There is no draw bias over 1m1f and further.
Limerick Draw Guide
Over 7f and 1m high draws seemed to have an advantage in 2005/06, but that has not been the case in the last two years where lower draws have certainly won their fair share. There is no draw bias over 1m3f and further. I FEEL HIGH HAS DEF ADV<
Naas Draw Guide
There seems to be a slight advantage to those drawn high over 5f, although the sample is very small and one cannot be dogmatic about it. There seems a similar strength bias over 6f, but again nothing to go overboard about. The sprint track is straight and quite wide, but gets narrower in the final 1½f. The runners tend to congregate down the centre.
Races of 7f or more are run on the round course and despite it being left-handed there is no sign of any low draw bias. The reason this may be the case is that they run around 3f before starting to turn left so wide (high) draws are not necessarily stuck out wide by the time they reach the long sweeping turn. There is no draw bias over 1m and further.
Navan Draw Guide
After 1½f in sprints the straight course narrows and hence the runners congregate centre to far side. There seems little in the draw at the two sprint trips. On the round course the draw seems very fair at all distances from 1m up to 1m5f.
Roscommon Draw Guide
There are no sprints at this track, but over 7f there is a definite advantage to high draws. Of the 21 handicaps with 10+ runners in the past four seasons, 13 have been won by high draws. A good example of the high drawn bias occurred on June 8th 2008 in the 14 runner Dermot Hughes Toyota Car Sales Handicap. Funatfuntasia the winner was drawn 14, while the next three horses home were drawn 13, 9 and 11.
Over 1m2f high to middle draws have a slight advantage, while there seems little in it over 1m4f.
Tipperary Draw Guide
The 5f sprint trip is raced on a straight course and low draws seem to be at a disadvantage, with middle to high draws winning 23 of 26 handicaps with 10+ runners over the past four seasons. A good example of the bias occurred on 10th April in the 18 runner Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap won by Brave Falcon. He was drawn 16, the runner up was drawn 18 and the 3rd drawn 14. 9 of the first 10 finishers that day were drawn in double figures.
The 7f trip is on the round course and although it is left-handed, high draws have performed best in recent years. One explanation could be that low draws go off too quickly, but this is pure conjecture.
Over 1m1f, 1m4f and 1m6f there are very few races with 10 or more runners each year and hence it is impossible to conclude whether any clear draw bias exists or not.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Pattern Sprint Races in Ireland courtesy Tony Keenan from 2006
Pattern races over sprint distances in Ireland tend to attract scant media attention for a few reasons, not least the fact that we don’t have a Group 1 (or even a Group 2) championship event for the speedsters and their status as supporting events to races of greater stature. However, the twelve Group 3 and Listed contests that comprise the Irish pattern sprint calendar throw up a number of interesting patterns that are useful to punters. We have focused on all such events to be run since the beginning of the 2003 season up to the recent King Of Beers Stakes won by Dandy Man, taking in the likes of the Greenlands, Ballyogan, Flying Five and Renaissance Stakes.TrainersThe English sprint scene may be devoid of a superstar since the retirement of Oasis Dream but they possess great strength in depth in that division and have dominated our better races of late. From 93 runners, the raiders have had 17 winners while 46% of their runners have made the first three. Trainers with particularly strong records are Barry Hills (a winner and 2 runners-up from 3 attempts), Tim Easterby (2 winners and a third from 4 runners), Roger Charlton (3 winners and 2 thirds from 7 runners) and Rae Guest (3 winners and a place from 7 attempts).Among the home brigade, John Mulhern, Harry Rogers and Michael Halford have done best. The first pair however, owe their successes to a single horse, Osterhase and the recently retired Moon Unit respectively, so the record of Curragh trainer Halford is of more interest as he has achieved with a number of different animals. From 24 runners, he has had 4 winners – all returned at 9/2 or greater – while 13 of his runners have made the first 5 home. His victories have all come with fillies so his representatives of the fairer sex merit particular respect.From a negative standpoint, the big three of Aidan O’Brien (1 winner from 17 runners, 13 of which were returned at 7/1 or less), John Oxx (2 winners from 17 runners, 13 whom were sent of at 8/1 or less) and Dermot (1 winner from 32 runners) have struggled. Aidan O’Brien has had some top-class sprinters recently in Mozart and Stravinsky but both made their reputation in the top English contests like the July Cup and the Nunthorpe. His sole sprint race winner at home in the past 3 years was One Cool Cat who won the Phoenix Stakes impressively after a few disappointing efforts and the fact that he had his remaining starts abroad suggests the top Ballydoyle sprinters are rarely seen in Ireland.AgeAge is little barrier to success in sprints if past records are anything to go by with all the age groups between 3 and 9 registering a win in the time period covered. 4yos have the best record with 14 winners and 17 places from 86 runners. It has often been said that the classic generation struggle against their elders in speed tests but they tend to have more success from the mid-summer onwards. Their place strikerate prior to the Belgrave Stakes, the midpoint of the sprint calendar, is 25% while it rises to 31% thereafter.FilliesThe fairer sex have two events confined to themselves in the Ballyogan and Sweet Mimosa Stakes but they more than hold their own against the colts and geldings. In open company, fillies and mares have managed 12 wins and 17 places from 132 runners. Their record over the minimum trip of 5f, a pure test of speed, is particularly strong.BettingThese races are largely predictable with 27 of the 41 winners being priced at 5/1 or shorter. Of the 5 double-figure priced winners, 3 have come in the Greenlands Stakes on Guineas weekend so be wary of taking a short price in that event. Odds-on backers should also thread carefully as all 6 ‘money-on’ jollies have been turned over.JockeysFor those who wish to follow a jockey in sprint events, there has been but one name to look out for on the racecard, J Murtagh. From 19 rides, he has had 7 winners for 5 different trainers and a €10 win bet on each of his mounts would have returned a massive profit of €313. The Waterford Testimonial Stakes, run at the Curragh in October, has been particularly kind to the Meath man as he was won each of the last 3 renewals
Monday, February 23, 2009
The biological basis of racehorse power courtesy James Willougby
The biological basis of racehorse power
Some while ago, I promised you a look at the science of how racehorses achieve fast times. At each distance, a horse requires a particular combination of speed and stamina, derived from the type of muscles it has and the blend of energy sources it can call on.To reach an advanced understand of the topic, so the true meaning of a horse's sectional times becomes more apparent, it is necessary to revert to biology which we all probably learned at school but have long since forgotten.A racehorse powers its movement by converting chemical energy stored in its muscles to mechanical energy for propulsion. The speed and efficiency with which it can do this is a significant factor of its racing merit.This chemical energy comes from adenosine triphosphate (ATP). When a chemical reaction occurs within the bonds of this molecule, energy is released which is used to contract muscle proteins and therby power movement.When a horse is at rest, its muscles have a residual stock of ATP which instantly fires the whole process, but the fuels it needs for prolonged movement are predominately fats and sugars.After a very short while, a horse's body needs to generate more ATP to meet the demands of the race. How it does this should provide you with a better insight of the way horses meet the demands of running overvarious distances, and how their capabilities can be inferred from studying their sectional times.To begin, I am going to take the example of two champion horses who won at the latest Breeders' Cup meeting, Classic winner Raven's Pass and Sprint hero Midnight Lute.These are the sectional times recorded by the leader at each point of call in their respective races on the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita:Sprint (6f) 21.28/43.85/55.14 = 1:07.08Classic (1m2f) 23.77/47.60/1:11.64/1:35.48 = 1:59.27Both races produced extraordinary finishing times which only world-class horses could achieve under the conditions which prevailed on the day. It is therefore hard to believe that either could have run much faster.So, according to the fundamental law of pace - even pace begets optimal time - it stands to reason that both races were run at even pace, right?Wrong. The Classic splits do indeed follow a pace of roughly 12 seconds per furlongs. At ten furlongs - which a scientific understanding leads me to believe is the purest test of the Classic thoroughbred - this "beat of 12" is characteristic of 99% of all the great time performances ever achieved. Though a horse's run-style may vary around this tempo - the slow early-fast late predilection of the true miler Raven's Pass is a good example - a horse simply cannot run its optimum time at 10 furlongs without a race of this shape around it.But, what of the brilliant sprinter Midnight Lute? The fractions of the Sprint were nothing like even, yet he, the runner-up Fatal Bullet and third-placed Street Boss all produced career-best Beyer speed figures, despite having markedly different styles of running.So, why do all top sprint races seem to follow a fast early-slow late pattern? Couldn't these horses run much faster times if they simply went off a bit more evenly?The answer is no. And, when you understand the reason, it may provide you with a whole new depth of interest in the sport.Let's return to biology 101. A horse's muscles, hungry for ATP, use three main processes to generate it, each making a different contribution to the horse's capacity to accelerate, sprint and stay.When the horse jumps out of the stalls, the residual ATP in its muscles combines with the breakdown of a molecule called phosphocreatine (PC) to provide enough fuel for the first 15 seconds of the race. This is extremely explosive, powerul energy which provides the horse with power like no other source.So a sprinter is usually going to run his first quarter-mile quicker than any other because he will never have the same magnitude of power to call on.
(Actually, Midnight Lute is a rare exception to this; his fastest quarter-mile in the Sprint was the middle one, but every other horse showed a pattern of marked deceleration, including runner-up Fatal Bullet.)Unfortunately, the extraordinary burst of acceleration of the sprinter leaving the stalls is not going to last. Within 15 to 20 seconds - approaching the end of the first quarter-mile - the readily available ATP/PC combination has run out and a second mechanism is about to take over.This process is called anaerobic glycolysis;'anaerobic' basically meaning without the presence of oxygen. A series of chemical reactions converts a fat molecule called glycogen into ATP in order to sustain the first explosive movement. Now, the world-class Midnight Lute is settling into the beat of his giant stride and the beautifully ridden Raven's Pass has hit his cruising speed. But what happens to them as the furlongs go by?To answer that question we need to consider the one big advantage and twoserious disadvantages of anaerobic glycolysis.As the name suggests, this second process of generating ATP does not require oxygen. This is tremendous news as the combination of heart and lungs used to move oxygenated blood to the extremeties takes time. It would be no good if that initial burst were wasted; the horse needs a second, ready source of power right now.But the first big disadvantage of anaerobic glycolysis is that it does not use much of the chemcial energy available from the fatty glycogen molecule. Only about 8%, in fact.
And the second drawback is worse still. The chemical reactions used to liberate the energy are extrememly dirty, creating waste products which start to eat away at the efficiency of the whole process.The most serious of these waste products is a substance called pyruvic acid. If this were to build up, the metabolic pathway from glycogen to ATP would grind to a halt. So the horse's body finds a temporary solution by converting pyruvic acid to less dangerous lactic acid, but even this has a severely limiting effect on the enzymes which the muscle relies upon. As you will know from personal experience of exercise, lactic acid build-up leads to muscle fatigue characterised by a burning, aching sensation in the athlete.
This is the infamous "pain barrier" to which Aidan O'Brien is fond of referring when discussing how he manages the psycholgical needs of the many champion racehorses he develops. (The "Red Zone" concept he introduced in a recent fascinating interview on RUK needs to be fleshed out more, and will be so when time allows.) Once this lactic acid build-up begins, it never ends. It is so powerful, so destructive to the metabolic pathway from glycogen to ATP that some biologists say a horse would be brought to a complete stop if this process alone were relied upon. Thesolution is to find a third mechanism for ATP conversion which is less messy and can allow the lactic acid accumulation to slow. This is known as aerobic glycolysis, but it does not kick in until a racehorse has been galloping for more than 60 seconds.Aerobic glycolysis ( 'with oxygen') may be slow but, boy, is a lot more efficient than its cousin. It generates the largest amount of ATP from each glycolgen molecule and is a much, much cleaner process for the metabolic pathway.In fact, the pyruvic acid produced this way is completely broken down into safer products, water and carbon dioxide being the only residue. And there is better news, still.As aerobic glycolysis continues, the bloodstream brings glocuse - primed for conversion to ATP - from glycogen stored in the liver and other fatty tissues of the body. (This is why sustained exercise is most efficient in helping to lose weight. When we can get offour glycogen-rich posteriors, of course.)Now, the smoothly ridden Raven's Pass is really beginning to pour it on, using lovely clean energy to limit the build-up of lactic acid and leave his muscles comparatively free to unleash afinishing kick.Oh, but what about Midnight Lute? He has finished the race already. In the 1:07 of the Breeders' Cup Sprint, he never had the chance to even call on the oxygen taken in by his lungs.But, of course, it doesn't matter. Garrett Gomez is standing up in the irons; he is punching the air. Midnight Lute has won a second Breeders' Cup Sprint with a brazen display of anaerobic glycolysis. He can ease down and his muscles can relax.
Who cares about lactic acid now, when adrenalin is surging through his body and his senses are overloaded by the cheering crowd, the blinking lights all around, even perhaps the thrill of exploring his athletic prowess? For a sprinter, even a late-running one like Midnight Lute, the best way to achieve a fast time is to sustain the initial burst provided by the PC kick detailed above; there is just no time for oxygenated blood to reach the muscles. The only way to keep up the gallop is to use ATP derived from dirty anerobic glycolysis. By the end of the six furlongs, the whole metablic pathway is a mess. But there is no time for anything else, and it doesn't matter anyway when the winning line is reached. And this is why sprints do not follow even pace. Exactly why a horse is a sprinter - they are made as well as born - wil be examined in the next article. For now, let's return to Raven's Pass.After a minute of the Breeders' Cup Classic - roughly five furlongs - here comes the lovely oxygenated blood and the glucose to power the muscles of Raven's Pass. Aerobic metabolism takes over in the second half of the Classic and lactic acid build-upslows. But aerobic metabolism alone cannot meet all the demands of his muscles, and some of the dirty anaerobic process continues. But jockey Frankie Dettori can keep this to a minimum by maintaining a constant speed (or near to) on Raven's Pass, using his energy most cleanly and most efficiently.And this is why middle-distance races follow even pace more closely than sprints. In the two minutes or so it takes to run a top race over 10 furlongs, the most efficient combination of a horse's different sources of energy is achieved while it runs at constant speed. This way it minimises the build-up of lactic acid while the process triggered by the arrival of oxgenated blood and glucose takes time to kick in.At distances in between six furlongs and 10 furlongs, the percentage use of aerobic and anaerobic respiration varies in proportion to the time taken to complete the race. One of the reasons why seven furlongs is a specialist distance for a horse is that it requires about one minute, 25 seconds of effort, which is on the threshold of aerobic metabolism. This necessitates an unusual demand; the true 7f specialist may be able to switch over to aerobic glycolysis faster and more efficiently than either the sprinter stepping up on distance or the miler stepping down.At distances of a mile and a half or more, a particularly interesting thing starts to happen, which can easily be seen in the sectionals of great races. I'm going to save that for next time, particularly as it led me to a finding which I believe is unique in the study of the thoroughbred.Thanks very much if you got this far. I hope you enjoyed the article and the others which will follow in this series. Apologies for the length of this piece: there is an awful lot to get through.
JW
Some while ago, I promised you a look at the science of how racehorses achieve fast times. At each distance, a horse requires a particular combination of speed and stamina, derived from the type of muscles it has and the blend of energy sources it can call on.To reach an advanced understand of the topic, so the true meaning of a horse's sectional times becomes more apparent, it is necessary to revert to biology which we all probably learned at school but have long since forgotten.A racehorse powers its movement by converting chemical energy stored in its muscles to mechanical energy for propulsion. The speed and efficiency with which it can do this is a significant factor of its racing merit.This chemical energy comes from adenosine triphosphate (ATP). When a chemical reaction occurs within the bonds of this molecule, energy is released which is used to contract muscle proteins and therby power movement.When a horse is at rest, its muscles have a residual stock of ATP which instantly fires the whole process, but the fuels it needs for prolonged movement are predominately fats and sugars.After a very short while, a horse's body needs to generate more ATP to meet the demands of the race. How it does this should provide you with a better insight of the way horses meet the demands of running overvarious distances, and how their capabilities can be inferred from studying their sectional times.To begin, I am going to take the example of two champion horses who won at the latest Breeders' Cup meeting, Classic winner Raven's Pass and Sprint hero Midnight Lute.These are the sectional times recorded by the leader at each point of call in their respective races on the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita:Sprint (6f) 21.28/43.85/55.14 = 1:07.08Classic (1m2f) 23.77/47.60/1:11.64/1:35.48 = 1:59.27Both races produced extraordinary finishing times which only world-class horses could achieve under the conditions which prevailed on the day. It is therefore hard to believe that either could have run much faster.So, according to the fundamental law of pace - even pace begets optimal time - it stands to reason that both races were run at even pace, right?Wrong. The Classic splits do indeed follow a pace of roughly 12 seconds per furlongs. At ten furlongs - which a scientific understanding leads me to believe is the purest test of the Classic thoroughbred - this "beat of 12" is characteristic of 99% of all the great time performances ever achieved. Though a horse's run-style may vary around this tempo - the slow early-fast late predilection of the true miler Raven's Pass is a good example - a horse simply cannot run its optimum time at 10 furlongs without a race of this shape around it.But, what of the brilliant sprinter Midnight Lute? The fractions of the Sprint were nothing like even, yet he, the runner-up Fatal Bullet and third-placed Street Boss all produced career-best Beyer speed figures, despite having markedly different styles of running.So, why do all top sprint races seem to follow a fast early-slow late pattern? Couldn't these horses run much faster times if they simply went off a bit more evenly?The answer is no. And, when you understand the reason, it may provide you with a whole new depth of interest in the sport.Let's return to biology 101. A horse's muscles, hungry for ATP, use three main processes to generate it, each making a different contribution to the horse's capacity to accelerate, sprint and stay.When the horse jumps out of the stalls, the residual ATP in its muscles combines with the breakdown of a molecule called phosphocreatine (PC) to provide enough fuel for the first 15 seconds of the race. This is extremely explosive, powerul energy which provides the horse with power like no other source.So a sprinter is usually going to run his first quarter-mile quicker than any other because he will never have the same magnitude of power to call on.
(Actually, Midnight Lute is a rare exception to this; his fastest quarter-mile in the Sprint was the middle one, but every other horse showed a pattern of marked deceleration, including runner-up Fatal Bullet.)Unfortunately, the extraordinary burst of acceleration of the sprinter leaving the stalls is not going to last. Within 15 to 20 seconds - approaching the end of the first quarter-mile - the readily available ATP/PC combination has run out and a second mechanism is about to take over.This process is called anaerobic glycolysis;'anaerobic' basically meaning without the presence of oxygen. A series of chemical reactions converts a fat molecule called glycogen into ATP in order to sustain the first explosive movement. Now, the world-class Midnight Lute is settling into the beat of his giant stride and the beautifully ridden Raven's Pass has hit his cruising speed. But what happens to them as the furlongs go by?To answer that question we need to consider the one big advantage and twoserious disadvantages of anaerobic glycolysis.As the name suggests, this second process of generating ATP does not require oxygen. This is tremendous news as the combination of heart and lungs used to move oxygenated blood to the extremeties takes time. It would be no good if that initial burst were wasted; the horse needs a second, ready source of power right now.But the first big disadvantage of anaerobic glycolysis is that it does not use much of the chemcial energy available from the fatty glycogen molecule. Only about 8%, in fact.
And the second drawback is worse still. The chemical reactions used to liberate the energy are extrememly dirty, creating waste products which start to eat away at the efficiency of the whole process.The most serious of these waste products is a substance called pyruvic acid. If this were to build up, the metabolic pathway from glycogen to ATP would grind to a halt. So the horse's body finds a temporary solution by converting pyruvic acid to less dangerous lactic acid, but even this has a severely limiting effect on the enzymes which the muscle relies upon. As you will know from personal experience of exercise, lactic acid build-up leads to muscle fatigue characterised by a burning, aching sensation in the athlete.
This is the infamous "pain barrier" to which Aidan O'Brien is fond of referring when discussing how he manages the psycholgical needs of the many champion racehorses he develops. (The "Red Zone" concept he introduced in a recent fascinating interview on RUK needs to be fleshed out more, and will be so when time allows.) Once this lactic acid build-up begins, it never ends. It is so powerful, so destructive to the metabolic pathway from glycogen to ATP that some biologists say a horse would be brought to a complete stop if this process alone were relied upon. Thesolution is to find a third mechanism for ATP conversion which is less messy and can allow the lactic acid accumulation to slow. This is known as aerobic glycolysis, but it does not kick in until a racehorse has been galloping for more than 60 seconds.Aerobic glycolysis ( 'with oxygen') may be slow but, boy, is a lot more efficient than its cousin. It generates the largest amount of ATP from each glycolgen molecule and is a much, much cleaner process for the metabolic pathway.In fact, the pyruvic acid produced this way is completely broken down into safer products, water and carbon dioxide being the only residue. And there is better news, still.As aerobic glycolysis continues, the bloodstream brings glocuse - primed for conversion to ATP - from glycogen stored in the liver and other fatty tissues of the body. (This is why sustained exercise is most efficient in helping to lose weight. When we can get offour glycogen-rich posteriors, of course.)Now, the smoothly ridden Raven's Pass is really beginning to pour it on, using lovely clean energy to limit the build-up of lactic acid and leave his muscles comparatively free to unleash afinishing kick.Oh, but what about Midnight Lute? He has finished the race already. In the 1:07 of the Breeders' Cup Sprint, he never had the chance to even call on the oxygen taken in by his lungs.But, of course, it doesn't matter. Garrett Gomez is standing up in the irons; he is punching the air. Midnight Lute has won a second Breeders' Cup Sprint with a brazen display of anaerobic glycolysis. He can ease down and his muscles can relax.
Who cares about lactic acid now, when adrenalin is surging through his body and his senses are overloaded by the cheering crowd, the blinking lights all around, even perhaps the thrill of exploring his athletic prowess? For a sprinter, even a late-running one like Midnight Lute, the best way to achieve a fast time is to sustain the initial burst provided by the PC kick detailed above; there is just no time for oxygenated blood to reach the muscles. The only way to keep up the gallop is to use ATP derived from dirty anerobic glycolysis. By the end of the six furlongs, the whole metablic pathway is a mess. But there is no time for anything else, and it doesn't matter anyway when the winning line is reached. And this is why sprints do not follow even pace. Exactly why a horse is a sprinter - they are made as well as born - wil be examined in the next article. For now, let's return to Raven's Pass.After a minute of the Breeders' Cup Classic - roughly five furlongs - here comes the lovely oxygenated blood and the glucose to power the muscles of Raven's Pass. Aerobic metabolism takes over in the second half of the Classic and lactic acid build-upslows. But aerobic metabolism alone cannot meet all the demands of his muscles, and some of the dirty anaerobic process continues. But jockey Frankie Dettori can keep this to a minimum by maintaining a constant speed (or near to) on Raven's Pass, using his energy most cleanly and most efficiently.And this is why middle-distance races follow even pace more closely than sprints. In the two minutes or so it takes to run a top race over 10 furlongs, the most efficient combination of a horse's different sources of energy is achieved while it runs at constant speed. This way it minimises the build-up of lactic acid while the process triggered by the arrival of oxgenated blood and glucose takes time to kick in.At distances in between six furlongs and 10 furlongs, the percentage use of aerobic and anaerobic respiration varies in proportion to the time taken to complete the race. One of the reasons why seven furlongs is a specialist distance for a horse is that it requires about one minute, 25 seconds of effort, which is on the threshold of aerobic metabolism. This necessitates an unusual demand; the true 7f specialist may be able to switch over to aerobic glycolysis faster and more efficiently than either the sprinter stepping up on distance or the miler stepping down.At distances of a mile and a half or more, a particularly interesting thing starts to happen, which can easily be seen in the sectionals of great races. I'm going to save that for next time, particularly as it led me to a finding which I believe is unique in the study of the thoroughbred.Thanks very much if you got this far. I hope you enjoyed the article and the others which will follow in this series. Apologies for the length of this piece: there is an awful lot to get through.
JW
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Hennessy - Leop Feb - trends courtesy Tony Keenan
Official ratings have been a fabulous guide here. 9 of the last 11 winners here were rated at least 160 with one of the exceptions, Beef Or Salmon in 2003, yet to have been given a handicap mark; he had however won the Lexus on his most recent start achieving a Racing Post Rating of 163+.- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form. - All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase. - Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus.
Posted by Tony Keenan
Posted by Tony Keenan
Hennessy - Leop Feb - trends courtesy Tony Keenan
Official ratings have been a fabulous guide here. 9 of the last 11 winners here were rated at least 160 with one of the exceptions, Beef Or Salmon in 2003, yet to have been given a handicap mark; he had however won the Lexus on his most recent start achieving a Racing Post Rating of 163+.- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form. - All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase. - Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus. Posted by Tony Keenan
Deloitte Novice Hdle Leop Feb- trends courtesy Tony Keenan
Six-year-olds have dominated this race with 7 of the last 10 winners as well as 9 of the 13 placed horses. - This is one of the best races in the calendar for backing the favourite; the market leader has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.- Just 1 of the past 10 winners (Forpadydeplasterer in 2008) failed to win their most recent start.- Solerina was an atypical winner of this in 2003 as she was having her ninth run of the season; on the whole relative freshness has been important and no other recent winner had run in the previous 4 weeks. - The Future Champions Novice Hurdle has been the best trial supplying 5 of the last 9 winners. The winners finished:21111 and this year’s renewal was won by Hurricane Fly.- Graded form figures prominently among the recent winners’ profiles; all but 1 of the last 10 winners had already run in a graded novice while 7 had won one. - Proven stamina is crucial with 9 of the last 10 winners having won over at least 19 furlongs. - Respect course form as 6 of the past 9 winners had already won at Leopardstown.- There are few more consistently fruitful sources of future winners and stars than this race and it has thrown up the likes of Sackville, Native Upmanship, Hardy Eustace, Solerina and Brave Inca recently. A bet on each of the first three home on their next three outings would return 32 winners from 87 bets (37% strike-rate) for a level-stakes profit of over €14.
Posted by Tony Keenan
Posted by Tony Keenan
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Leop Chase 11th Jan - trends courtesy Tony Keenan
The ground has been no faster than yielding-soft in the past 10 years.- Arthur Moore is a trainer to note. He has saddled 2 winners and 4 placed horse in the past decade including the second and third last year.- Unlike many of the top staying handicaps, weight seems not to matter and there is no reason why lightly-weighted contenders should be given preference. The top-weight has won the last 2 renewals while winners in the preceding 8 years carried 12-0, 11-11 and 11-1 to victory. - 7 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 134 and 144.- 9yos are the dominant age-group with 6 winners and 5 runners-up since 1999. Horses in double figures can and do win this as What A Native (10yo) and Buck Rogers (11yo) have shown but both were very lightly raced for their age having had just 9 and 10 chase starts respectively and as a rule I’d be against very exposed horses.- The market was a fine guide between 1999 and 2006 with every winner returned at 7/1 or shorter but its efficiency hasn’t been great lately with 14/1 shots winning the last 2 runnings. - Concentrate on in-form horses; 8 of the last 9 winners had finished in the first four on their last completed start. - Of the big winter handicaps, the Troytown has been a much better guide than the Paddy Power. Half of the winners in the last decade ran in the Navan race, finishing:11423, while only two had run in the December 27th event, one being brought down and the other finishing eleventh. No surprise there as the Leopardstown Chase and Troytown share much in common being classy affairs contested by much smaller fields (only one field of more than 15 since 1999) than the Paddy Power which is more of a lottery. And yes, I’ve never backed the winner of it!- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the previous 6 weeks. - Focus on unexposed horses. Of the last 10 winners, only Cloudy Bays (a Charles Byrnes special) had more than 9 starts in handicap chases.- In the same vein, second- and third-season chasers dominate. The aforementioned What A Native and Buck Rogers may have had their chase runs spread out due to injuries but they were second- and third-season chasers in all but name like the all the other recent winners.- Proven stamina isn’t a pre-requisite for success as 3 of the recent winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had previously won over at least 2m5f though.
Posted by Tony Keenan
Posted by Tony Keenan
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