Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Troytown Hcp Chase Navan - Trends courtesy Tony Keenan
The last 9 winners carried no more than 10-9 to victory. In the same period, all winners were in receipt of at least 18lbs from the top-weight.- All of the winners in the last decade were aged between 6 and 9.- Fancied horses dominate affairs in the feature of the Navan jumps season. Only 1 winner since 1998 was returned at a double-figure price (Cane Brake at 10/1 in 2006) and 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 11/2 or shorter. - I’d tend to be against summer jumpers here – just 1 of the last 9 winners ran had run more than twice since Punchestown and that was the ludicrously well-handicapped Cloudy Bays who won this off 119 but finished the season rated 152.- Staying chasers often need an outing to get themselves fit and preference would be for horses with prep run under their belt – with the exception of Lyreen Wonder, who won this off long breaks in 2000 & 2001, the other winners in the last decade had acquitted themselves well in the previous 2 months.- Ryhane had had 12 handicap chase runs prior to landing the 1998 renewal but since then all of the winners had run 9 or fewer times in handicaps over fences.- Second-season chasers have won 7 of the last 9 runnings with the 2 exceptions being lightly-raced third-season chasers.- Respect previous course form. 6 of the last 8 winners had already won at Navan while another had finished second.- While proven stamina over 3 miles isn’t totally essential, contenders should have at least suggested they are likely to get home. All of the winners since 1998 had won over at least 22f while 7 had won over the race distance
Draw
ASCOTStalls 1-3 were 0-86 over 5f and 6f in 2007. Over 7f stalls 1-3 were 1-47 (Candidato Roy was the only winner when he raced solo against the stands rail).
AYR31 of the 41 handicaps run on the round course in 2007 went to a horse from the top half of the draw.
BATHSince 2005 in sprint handicaps with 12 or more runners, stalls 1-3 are 0-71 (six of those started favourite at 3-1 or shorter and all six were unplaced). Since 2000 in sprint handicaps with 16 or more runners, stalls 1-4 are 1-121.
CHESTERBacking every horse drawn in stall 1 in every race at Chester since 2000 would have produced 109 wins from 555 runs and a level stakes profit of 67.56 points. The distances punters should concentrate on are at both extremes - 5f (31-125, + 73.62) and 1m4f and beyond (25-114, +44.61).
EPSOMIn double-figure fields at 1m 4f only Eshwarah and Oath have won from stalls 1 or 2 since 1999 (2-115 in total).
GOODWOODStall 1 is only 2-82 on the straight course (5f and 6f) over the last two years; the two winners both won again next time.
LEICESTERIn all 6f races run since 2000 stall 1 has record of 25 wins from 150 runs and a profit of 23.65 points.
NEWBURYThe winner made all in only two of the 57 handicaps run at Newbury in 2007.
SANDOWNSince 1998 the record of all favourites from double-figure draws in handicaps at 7f or 1m is just 5 wins from 45 runs (in other words high-drawn horses tend to be overbet in big fields at these distances).
WARWICKStill arguably the most dramatic and yet least-known draw-bias stat around, despite being highlighted in this column two years ago. Since 2000 backing stalls 1 and 2 blindly in all races at 1m+ has produced 89 wins from 613 runs and a level stakes profit of 495.71pts. Even allowing for the fact that one of the winners (Beechy Bank in 2002) started at 200-1, this is still an enormous profit for a very simple system. It has shown a profit in each of the last seven years
AYR31 of the 41 handicaps run on the round course in 2007 went to a horse from the top half of the draw.
BATHSince 2005 in sprint handicaps with 12 or more runners, stalls 1-3 are 0-71 (six of those started favourite at 3-1 or shorter and all six were unplaced). Since 2000 in sprint handicaps with 16 or more runners, stalls 1-4 are 1-121.
CHESTERBacking every horse drawn in stall 1 in every race at Chester since 2000 would have produced 109 wins from 555 runs and a level stakes profit of 67.56 points. The distances punters should concentrate on are at both extremes - 5f (31-125, + 73.62) and 1m4f and beyond (25-114, +44.61).
EPSOMIn double-figure fields at 1m 4f only Eshwarah and Oath have won from stalls 1 or 2 since 1999 (2-115 in total).
GOODWOODStall 1 is only 2-82 on the straight course (5f and 6f) over the last two years; the two winners both won again next time.
LEICESTERIn all 6f races run since 2000 stall 1 has record of 25 wins from 150 runs and a profit of 23.65 points.
NEWBURYThe winner made all in only two of the 57 handicaps run at Newbury in 2007.
SANDOWNSince 1998 the record of all favourites from double-figure draws in handicaps at 7f or 1m is just 5 wins from 45 runs (in other words high-drawn horses tend to be overbet in big fields at these distances).
WARWICKStill arguably the most dramatic and yet least-known draw-bias stat around, despite being highlighted in this column two years ago. Since 2000 backing stalls 1 and 2 blindly in all races at 1m+ has produced 89 wins from 613 runs and a level stakes profit of 495.71pts. Even allowing for the fact that one of the winners (Beechy Bank in 2002) started at 200-1, this is still an enormous profit for a very simple system. It has shown a profit in each of the last seven years
Friday, November 14, 2008
Angles
Don’t bet when the going changes. If the going changes from firm to soft, keep your money in your pocket. Nothing upsets form more than a major change in ground conditions.
Follow up-and-coming jockeys. Look out for promising apprentices.
Don’t chase your losses. There’s always another day.
Don’t bet heavily when there’s been a sudden change in the track condition.
Don’t back out of form trainers or jockeys
One vital ingredient for successful punting is that you’ve got to be confident that your selection can win. Horses with good recent form, preferably winning form, running against limited opposition within their class, when at their peak, progressing or improving, do win most races, all year round.
“They are a constant source of winners for anyone to exploit. Almost every winner worth backing falls into this category which is broadened even further by the four pros: PROVEN, PROGRESSIVE, PROMISING and PROFITABLE.”
It is sufficient to be a master of one game rather than try to learn two or three, as long as you retire to the side lines when the game you know is no longer being played.” The same principal applies in gambling.
Get an EDGE & stick to using it. What is your edge. What do I know that gives me advantage over others. Have a game plan & stick to it.
On a bad run take a break & get away from racing for at least a week.
Each way - an admission that dont really expect to win.
In exchange betting 75% of the volume is in the last 5 minutes B4 the off spread pretty evenly but at highest 1-2 mins b4 off.
Follow up-and-coming jockeys. Look out for promising apprentices.
Don’t chase your losses. There’s always another day.
Don’t bet heavily when there’s been a sudden change in the track condition.
Don’t back out of form trainers or jockeys
One vital ingredient for successful punting is that you’ve got to be confident that your selection can win. Horses with good recent form, preferably winning form, running against limited opposition within their class, when at their peak, progressing or improving, do win most races, all year round.
“They are a constant source of winners for anyone to exploit. Almost every winner worth backing falls into this category which is broadened even further by the four pros: PROVEN, PROGRESSIVE, PROMISING and PROFITABLE.”
It is sufficient to be a master of one game rather than try to learn two or three, as long as you retire to the side lines when the game you know is no longer being played.” The same principal applies in gambling.
Get an EDGE & stick to using it. What is your edge. What do I know that gives me advantage over others. Have a game plan & stick to it.
On a bad run take a break & get away from racing for at least a week.
Each way - an admission that dont really expect to win.
In exchange betting 75% of the volume is in the last 5 minutes B4 the off spread pretty evenly but at highest 1-2 mins b4 off.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
All Weather racing
SOUTHWELL
With its long straights and sweeping bends it is ideal for relentless gallopers. However the surface can be deep and testing particularly after dry or frosty weather. Subsequently Southwell rides the slowest of the all weather tracks and tired horses often get caught. The kickback is considerable and races up to a mile usually develop from the front. In longer races it is more difficult to make all the running. In fact in the first 125 starts over 1m following the refurbishment, stall one only won once, a strike rate of 0.8%. In races from 6f to 1m consider laying any fancied horse in stall one. On the 5f straight, horses drawn low have a significant advantage. They get the faster part of the track over the first few furlongs and can then grab the favoured middle of the track when they join the round course. At Southwell if frost is forecast they harrow deeper which slows the track down considerably. When the track has been rolled after rain it compacts and rides fast.
LINGFIELD
The contours of the track favour well balanced horses who can run down hill. To lead 5f Lingfield need a well balanced horse as the final bend can cause to slow horses at vital point. From 2.5f out you have to be building up momentum, cant afford to get checked in this period & must get a clear run, often by keeping wide. By being on th inside leading on this run you can be too tight to last bend & not able to run at full pace. At the 2.5f point (start of fnal bend) you need to be at least 1 horse off the rail & ideally 2. Because theygo a slow pace in all races here you need to be able to sprint the last 2.5f. Jockeys who ride this particular coarse well are important. In a maiden race the ideal scenario is a mid- wide draw, break well, settle just off lead & not on rail, wind up from 2.5f out & lead in straight.
AT ALL DISTANCES IT IS VITAL TO GET A CLEAR RUN FROM 2.5F OUT
5f
Draw - up to 8 runners - Adv to middle (1 & outer both negative)
8-10 runners - Adv to middle (2-6 best)
In 8 races (6mdns & 2 hcps) with 5-9 runners no stall 1 & no outer stall won. 4 Led & all races prom - hard to come from behind.
The sharpest 5f & you want a 5f horse - prev exp at 5f positive
Plenty of winners make all but you certainly want to be prominent. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
6f
The race almost starts on a bend so it takes 1f for the horses to reach top speed.
Draw - up to 8 runners -1 & outer negative
8-10 runners - Outer negative, 1 negative.
11+ runners - No adv ( 1& 2 slight negative)
From 18 races (10mdns & 8 hcps) only 1 horse won from 1 draw & that in a 5 runner field & 1 winner from outer stall.
Can come from behind & make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight. Form over 6f at Lingfield is a positive.
In 6f Hcps from Nov - march for 2yos becoming 3yos Favs are 25/51. Dist Winners who started Fav are 18/37. Coarse winners who started fav are 16/28. C&D winners who started fav are 10/19. Fillies against colts who started fav are 4/10.
7f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. High slightly favoured
11+ run Adv to stalls 3-10 (1&2 & 11+ negative)
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
8f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. No other adv
11+ run 1 negative. Adv to top half
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured in mdns. Can come from behind & not easy to make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
1m2f
Usually small fields & often a very slow pace.
In maidens can often dictate gallop in front. Can come from any positions & often do in hcps where v small fields prevail. Again off rail & momentum into straight are important. Because these are not true run events its best to be bred for a shorter trip so as not to be caught flat footed.
SURFACE
Never back a horse who has not proven himself over course and distance. Although four of the five tracks have a polytrack surface it would be wrong to assume that a horse will be equally at home on any of them. Wolverhampton is tight, Great Leighs has sweeping bends, Lingfield is part down hill with a tight bend and a camber and Kempton is right handed. They are all polytrack, but they are all different.
KEMPTON
5f
The coarse is the inner ircuit. As they race on a bend for half the race & the straight is very short, LEADING is a big advantage as they wont o flat out & leader can then quicken in str. in 22 hcps of 7 of less runners 11 made all, 9 tracked & 2 came from rear (they both won again within next 2 runs).
To lead the draw is an advantage with 10 winners on inner, 3 next door, 4 next to that, then 3 in next stalls & 3 on outer.
OXOXNext I looked at what the Americans call the OXOX phenomenon. I call this the zig zag pattern because that is what it would look like on a graph. Some horses produce alternate high and low speed figures but are unable to produce consecutive good or bad performances. It is as if they bounce after every race. This pattern is seen most often in 3 year olds. It is surprising how many horses fall into this category.
EXAMPLES OF ZIG ZAG SPEED FIGURES
J M W TURNER 0064 W 7F0 67*L 5F 076 W 6Fi 67 S 6F 076 L 6F0 66 S 6FKINABALU00000i 61 L 7F 0i49 W 1M 054 W 1M1 i49 L 1M20 60 L 1M 0LADY NATILDAii 58 W 5F 042 W 6F0 66 W 6F 047 W 6F 057*W 6FLEGAL SET 0000i058 L 6F 0i53 L 6F 0077*L 7F 0i49 S 6F0 71 L 6F 060 L 6FMY MAITE 00000i66 L1M2 75 L1M2 i62 L 1M2 077*L 1M2PROSPECT COV ii29 W1M1 59 S 7F036 W 1M0 i57 W 1M1o 37 S 1M3 TASS HEEL 00o0ii61 L 2M 0i67 W 1M7 o62 S 1M6 067*S 1M60 58 L 1M50WHITE PLAINS i51 W1M70 60*W1M4 45 L 1M5 66*S 1M6 42 W 1M4 YALLA LARA00ii 63 L 7F 0070 L 1M 058 L 7F0 65 L 7F 059 L 1M 071*L 7F
If MY MAITEs next run was 1m2f at Lingfield you would expect him to produce a rating in the mid 70s. Conversely on his next outing KINABALU will probably return a figure around the fifty mark.
THREE TIME IMPROVERSThis title can be misleading because the horse may only have improved twice. The criteria is that a horse has three consecutively improving speed figures. For example PRINCE PROSPECT 67 65 57. When a horse produces this sequence how will it fare in its next race? Like me you would probably expect a further improvement in the majority of cases. However you will probably be as surprised as I was to find out this was not the case. An American study showed that only 25% continued to improve, 4% repeated their previous performance and a whopping 71% produced a lower figure.These statistics are depressing to say the least. I was hoping they would provide a valuable pointer to future winners. However that particular study was carried out in America where they have much more racing on many differing tracks. How would the figures stack up in this country with limited racing and only three courses.After carrying out the same research on our 3554 horses I found 622 occasions when this pattern occurred. The question was, on their next run would these horses fare any better than their American counterparts. Sadly the answer was, not a chance. They did even worse. The outcome was devastating. Of the 622 horses in the sample the results were as follows :-
143 IMPROVED 23%19 0RAN THE SAME 3%460 RETURNED LOWER FIG 74%
Of the 143 horses who continued to improve only 22 of them won (15%). And that is only a miserable 3.5% of the 622 horses in the sample.What about horses who ran up three consecutive declining figures, would they continue to deteriorate or would they perform a reverse bounce. The American study showed that 32% continued their decline, 4% ran the same figure and 64% improved. Again I looked at our 3554 horses for comparisons. On the 567 occasions where this pattern emerged :-
153 CONTINUED DECLINE 27%180 RAN THE SAME 3%396 IMPROVED 70%Although 70% of horses improved following their three race decline they did not improve enough to make them worth backing.
In US racing they are interested in speed figures, pace & track (draw & fastest strip) bias.
Who would lead, how fast would they go, how many front runners, where is the fastest strip on the track, is track favouring front runners or fast finishers.
Turf horses suited to AW have following profile - holds a prom position b4 onepaced in last 2f.
Majority races run at strong early pace as jockeys recognise importance of good early position, by halfway field spread out, and that means a clear run in likely.
Horses who appear to finish fast are merely galloping on & catching tired horses.
Winning distances are greater because horses arent just sprinting for 3f.
AW races barely affected by the weight carried.
TURF
Comparison of turf & AW racing for handicapping - in turf races the field were generally more bunched up than in AW race. Key factor in turf races is the finishing kick and speed figures have limited usefulness because they measure horses overall performance rather than final fraction. Hence Mordins new 2yo ratings which use last 3f. Also all AW races are around a bend rather than straight so that the field are more spaced out from earlier. Speed figures for turf are hindered by rain during meeting, headwind, slow early pace & moving rails.
When assessing past performance as a guide to future the subsequent race should be over same distance or not more than 1 fur further. Performance of most hcp class horses on turf is very distance sensitive.
A figure be it speed figure or rating tells you what the horse did last time. it doesnt automatically predict what will do next time. Dont expect horse to reproduce his good figure in a different type of race - hcp , claimer, mdn.
Most horses can produce similar rating at more than 1 distance.
The fastest horse cant win if hes badly drawn or if likely pace wont suit.
If an apprentice rode when good performance was achieved consider whether his claim was an important factor especially if not riding next time.
Other doubts to consider - ground, nature of track (R/H, L/H, Flat, Undulating, Straight, Bend) & size of field.
Track bias
Is it best to be on inside rail or outside & how is this influenced by stalls position & draw.
Is the track favouring front runners or strong finishers.
On sand the front runner doesnt get swamped because the horses in behind cant produce the same sort of acceleration they do on turf. They also avoid kickback. Explains why Lingfield favoured by good trainers as it replicates turf - no kickback & those that finish win
Pace
Fast - usually results in all the front runners finishing well btn.
Average - runners bunched but not falling over each other . Winner can come from behind or front & form likely to work out.
Slow - noone wants to lead, several pulling hard, positions changing frequently. If slow pace persists for 2 or 3 furlongs then horses to the fore have advantage when pace quickens. Results likely to be false.
Draw
Concentrate on recent results
What is draw adv over coarse & distance & how important is a good draw.
What is ideal way to ride this particular horse.
Does the draw make it easier or harder for jockey to execute tactics.
Goodwood = At 3f pole in races over 7f+ the horse in front won 50% of time in 1997.
Claiming races
Concentrate on horses at the top.
Group races
Weight penalties for previous pattern success can be important - extra 3-5lb significant
Be wary of Grp 1 winners in lesser events using as prep.
Hcp Chases
Weight doesnt matter.
Young chasers are best.
Suited by track & trip (R/H, L/H, Flat or Undulating).
Good jumpers in form.
Handicapping
The effect that weight has on slowing down a racehorse is that for each pound carried in a race over 5 furlongs (1,000 metres) it will slow a horse by over two feet (a neck), and in a 2-mile race (3,200 metres) by about eight feet (one length). So 30lbs at a sprint distance, at 3lbs per length, equals 10 lengths and 30lbs over 2 miles, at one pound per length, would be 30 lengths. At distances around a mile (1,600 metres) the accepted conversion is that one length equals 2lbs and at intermediate (10 furlongs/2,000 metres) and middle distances (12 furlongs/2,400 metres) one length equals 1.5 lbs.
These weight-to-distance equivalents are by no means 100 per cent exact but they still provide a good guide in helping to assess the merits of the racehorse. They will, for example, be altered by extreme ground conditions. The handicapper would be fully entitled to use the 3lbs per length over 5 furlongs on fast ground but it would almost certainly be inaccurate to use the same equivalent if the ground was very soft or heavy. He may choose to use 2lbs or even 1.5lbs per length in the latter case. This would be up to the individual concerned and he would base his decision on previous similar extreme conditions, with possible reference to average race times.
Distance
Pounds per Length
5f (1,000 metres)
3
6f (1,200 metres)
2.5
7f-9f (1,400-1,800 metres)
2
10-12f (2,000-2,400 metres)
1.5
12f plus (2,400 metres plus)
1
In flat handicaps the higher weights dont have any more effect than lighter weights (the difference between 9st & 10st is the same as 8st & 9st.
The weights carried are all as a result of the horse producing a performance that merited that rating. In other words all horses are capable of running to their handicap. So in order to win a hcp what you want is a horse who is going to run better than his rating. Which is why horses with few hcp runs win most hcps. What you want is an improver - someone who is better than have shown. You also need as many factors as possible in you favour (Draw, Going, Distance, Jockey, Track, Stable in form, Horse at his peak, and the class of horses he is running againt)
Factors affecting results
When assessing riders on the way up it is often a good idea to spend a period of time focusing on their tactical as well as riding abilities. Cardinal sins in my book, are how many times they get involved a disputed battle for the lead, rather than sit passively outside a leader, how deep they are on the track, do they look for cover and how do they look to overcome tricky draws.
The battle for the lead issue revolves around what I call the ‘David Bedford’ syndrome. Bedford used to run world class times in lower grade athletics meets where he was out on his own competing only against the clock. Stick him in a world class field however and even though his times were competitive if he was taken on for the lead it all went pear shaped. It was as if as well as the physical energy expended in running at a certain speed there was also a mental drain if he was forced to ‘race’ from an early stage as opposed to getting into a nice unpestered rhythm. I have always felt this applies to horses who even if they are going at the same physical speed seem to find a disputed lead far more draining than an uncontested one. Jockeys who realise this and don’t get hooked up in battles for the lead but instead adopt a passive stance which helps tilt the advantage in favour of the leaders, are clearly sound tactically rather than those who when given instructions to lead will press on to fulfill those orders even if they end up setting up for the closers.
The inside rail at Southwell is on e off the clearest advantages of track bias that is present on a regular basis and hence it is easy to measure riders against. Some jockeys however are capable of spotting more subtle nuances which may favour front runners if the rail is good or closers if the centre is quicker. The ability to flex tactics to capitalise on this is also a handy asset for the tactically astute rider.
With its long straights and sweeping bends it is ideal for relentless gallopers. However the surface can be deep and testing particularly after dry or frosty weather. Subsequently Southwell rides the slowest of the all weather tracks and tired horses often get caught. The kickback is considerable and races up to a mile usually develop from the front. In longer races it is more difficult to make all the running. In fact in the first 125 starts over 1m following the refurbishment, stall one only won once, a strike rate of 0.8%. In races from 6f to 1m consider laying any fancied horse in stall one. On the 5f straight, horses drawn low have a significant advantage. They get the faster part of the track over the first few furlongs and can then grab the favoured middle of the track when they join the round course. At Southwell if frost is forecast they harrow deeper which slows the track down considerably. When the track has been rolled after rain it compacts and rides fast.
LINGFIELD
The contours of the track favour well balanced horses who can run down hill. To lead 5f Lingfield need a well balanced horse as the final bend can cause to slow horses at vital point. From 2.5f out you have to be building up momentum, cant afford to get checked in this period & must get a clear run, often by keeping wide. By being on th inside leading on this run you can be too tight to last bend & not able to run at full pace. At the 2.5f point (start of fnal bend) you need to be at least 1 horse off the rail & ideally 2. Because theygo a slow pace in all races here you need to be able to sprint the last 2.5f. Jockeys who ride this particular coarse well are important. In a maiden race the ideal scenario is a mid- wide draw, break well, settle just off lead & not on rail, wind up from 2.5f out & lead in straight.
AT ALL DISTANCES IT IS VITAL TO GET A CLEAR RUN FROM 2.5F OUT
5f
Draw - up to 8 runners - Adv to middle (1 & outer both negative)
8-10 runners - Adv to middle (2-6 best)
In 8 races (6mdns & 2 hcps) with 5-9 runners no stall 1 & no outer stall won. 4 Led & all races prom - hard to come from behind.
The sharpest 5f & you want a 5f horse - prev exp at 5f positive
Plenty of winners make all but you certainly want to be prominent. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
6f
The race almost starts on a bend so it takes 1f for the horses to reach top speed.
Draw - up to 8 runners -1 & outer negative
8-10 runners - Outer negative, 1 negative.
11+ runners - No adv ( 1& 2 slight negative)
From 18 races (10mdns & 8 hcps) only 1 horse won from 1 draw & that in a 5 runner field & 1 winner from outer stall.
Can come from behind & make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight. Form over 6f at Lingfield is a positive.
In 6f Hcps from Nov - march for 2yos becoming 3yos Favs are 25/51. Dist Winners who started Fav are 18/37. Coarse winners who started fav are 16/28. C&D winners who started fav are 10/19. Fillies against colts who started fav are 4/10.
7f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. High slightly favoured
11+ run Adv to stalls 3-10 (1&2 & 11+ negative)
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
8f
Draw - up to 10 runners - 1 negative. No other adv
11+ run 1 negative. Adv to top half
Running in the 1st 4 is favoured in mdns. Can come from behind & not easy to make all. 1 horse width off rail is the place to be on the downhill run from 2.5f out in order to carry momentum into straight.
1m2f
Usually small fields & often a very slow pace.
In maidens can often dictate gallop in front. Can come from any positions & often do in hcps where v small fields prevail. Again off rail & momentum into straight are important. Because these are not true run events its best to be bred for a shorter trip so as not to be caught flat footed.
SURFACE
Never back a horse who has not proven himself over course and distance. Although four of the five tracks have a polytrack surface it would be wrong to assume that a horse will be equally at home on any of them. Wolverhampton is tight, Great Leighs has sweeping bends, Lingfield is part down hill with a tight bend and a camber and Kempton is right handed. They are all polytrack, but they are all different.
KEMPTON
5f
The coarse is the inner ircuit. As they race on a bend for half the race & the straight is very short, LEADING is a big advantage as they wont o flat out & leader can then quicken in str. in 22 hcps of 7 of less runners 11 made all, 9 tracked & 2 came from rear (they both won again within next 2 runs).
To lead the draw is an advantage with 10 winners on inner, 3 next door, 4 next to that, then 3 in next stalls & 3 on outer.
OXOXNext I looked at what the Americans call the OXOX phenomenon. I call this the zig zag pattern because that is what it would look like on a graph. Some horses produce alternate high and low speed figures but are unable to produce consecutive good or bad performances. It is as if they bounce after every race. This pattern is seen most often in 3 year olds. It is surprising how many horses fall into this category.
EXAMPLES OF ZIG ZAG SPEED FIGURES
J M W TURNER 0064 W 7F0 67*L 5F 076 W 6Fi 67 S 6F 076 L 6F0 66 S 6FKINABALU00000i 61 L 7F 0i49 W 1M 054 W 1M1 i49 L 1M20 60 L 1M 0LADY NATILDAii 58 W 5F 042 W 6F0 66 W 6F 047 W 6F 057*W 6FLEGAL SET 0000i058 L 6F 0i53 L 6F 0077*L 7F 0i49 S 6F0 71 L 6F 060 L 6FMY MAITE 00000i66 L1M2 75 L1M2 i62 L 1M2 077*L 1M2PROSPECT COV ii29 W1M1 59 S 7F036 W 1M0 i57 W 1M1o 37 S 1M3 TASS HEEL 00o0ii61 L 2M 0i67 W 1M7 o62 S 1M6 067*S 1M60 58 L 1M50WHITE PLAINS i51 W1M70 60*W1M4 45 L 1M5 66*S 1M6 42 W 1M4 YALLA LARA00ii 63 L 7F 0070 L 1M 058 L 7F0 65 L 7F 059 L 1M 071*L 7F
If MY MAITEs next run was 1m2f at Lingfield you would expect him to produce a rating in the mid 70s. Conversely on his next outing KINABALU will probably return a figure around the fifty mark.
THREE TIME IMPROVERSThis title can be misleading because the horse may only have improved twice. The criteria is that a horse has three consecutively improving speed figures. For example PRINCE PROSPECT 67 65 57. When a horse produces this sequence how will it fare in its next race? Like me you would probably expect a further improvement in the majority of cases. However you will probably be as surprised as I was to find out this was not the case. An American study showed that only 25% continued to improve, 4% repeated their previous performance and a whopping 71% produced a lower figure.These statistics are depressing to say the least. I was hoping they would provide a valuable pointer to future winners. However that particular study was carried out in America where they have much more racing on many differing tracks. How would the figures stack up in this country with limited racing and only three courses.After carrying out the same research on our 3554 horses I found 622 occasions when this pattern occurred. The question was, on their next run would these horses fare any better than their American counterparts. Sadly the answer was, not a chance. They did even worse. The outcome was devastating. Of the 622 horses in the sample the results were as follows :-
143 IMPROVED 23%19 0RAN THE SAME 3%460 RETURNED LOWER FIG 74%
Of the 143 horses who continued to improve only 22 of them won (15%). And that is only a miserable 3.5% of the 622 horses in the sample.What about horses who ran up three consecutive declining figures, would they continue to deteriorate or would they perform a reverse bounce. The American study showed that 32% continued their decline, 4% ran the same figure and 64% improved. Again I looked at our 3554 horses for comparisons. On the 567 occasions where this pattern emerged :-
153 CONTINUED DECLINE 27%180 RAN THE SAME 3%396 IMPROVED 70%Although 70% of horses improved following their three race decline they did not improve enough to make them worth backing.
In US racing they are interested in speed figures, pace & track (draw & fastest strip) bias.
Who would lead, how fast would they go, how many front runners, where is the fastest strip on the track, is track favouring front runners or fast finishers.
Turf horses suited to AW have following profile - holds a prom position b4 onepaced in last 2f.
Majority races run at strong early pace as jockeys recognise importance of good early position, by halfway field spread out, and that means a clear run in likely.
Horses who appear to finish fast are merely galloping on & catching tired horses.
Winning distances are greater because horses arent just sprinting for 3f.
AW races barely affected by the weight carried.
TURF
Comparison of turf & AW racing for handicapping - in turf races the field were generally more bunched up than in AW race. Key factor in turf races is the finishing kick and speed figures have limited usefulness because they measure horses overall performance rather than final fraction. Hence Mordins new 2yo ratings which use last 3f. Also all AW races are around a bend rather than straight so that the field are more spaced out from earlier. Speed figures for turf are hindered by rain during meeting, headwind, slow early pace & moving rails.
When assessing past performance as a guide to future the subsequent race should be over same distance or not more than 1 fur further. Performance of most hcp class horses on turf is very distance sensitive.
A figure be it speed figure or rating tells you what the horse did last time. it doesnt automatically predict what will do next time. Dont expect horse to reproduce his good figure in a different type of race - hcp , claimer, mdn.
Most horses can produce similar rating at more than 1 distance.
The fastest horse cant win if hes badly drawn or if likely pace wont suit.
If an apprentice rode when good performance was achieved consider whether his claim was an important factor especially if not riding next time.
Other doubts to consider - ground, nature of track (R/H, L/H, Flat, Undulating, Straight, Bend) & size of field.
Track bias
Is it best to be on inside rail or outside & how is this influenced by stalls position & draw.
Is the track favouring front runners or strong finishers.
On sand the front runner doesnt get swamped because the horses in behind cant produce the same sort of acceleration they do on turf. They also avoid kickback. Explains why Lingfield favoured by good trainers as it replicates turf - no kickback & those that finish win
Pace
Fast - usually results in all the front runners finishing well btn.
Average - runners bunched but not falling over each other . Winner can come from behind or front & form likely to work out.
Slow - noone wants to lead, several pulling hard, positions changing frequently. If slow pace persists for 2 or 3 furlongs then horses to the fore have advantage when pace quickens. Results likely to be false.
Draw
Concentrate on recent results
What is draw adv over coarse & distance & how important is a good draw.
What is ideal way to ride this particular horse.
Does the draw make it easier or harder for jockey to execute tactics.
Goodwood = At 3f pole in races over 7f+ the horse in front won 50% of time in 1997.
Claiming races
Concentrate on horses at the top.
Group races
Weight penalties for previous pattern success can be important - extra 3-5lb significant
Be wary of Grp 1 winners in lesser events using as prep.
Hcp Chases
Weight doesnt matter.
Young chasers are best.
Suited by track & trip (R/H, L/H, Flat or Undulating).
Good jumpers in form.
Handicapping
The effect that weight has on slowing down a racehorse is that for each pound carried in a race over 5 furlongs (1,000 metres) it will slow a horse by over two feet (a neck), and in a 2-mile race (3,200 metres) by about eight feet (one length). So 30lbs at a sprint distance, at 3lbs per length, equals 10 lengths and 30lbs over 2 miles, at one pound per length, would be 30 lengths. At distances around a mile (1,600 metres) the accepted conversion is that one length equals 2lbs and at intermediate (10 furlongs/2,000 metres) and middle distances (12 furlongs/2,400 metres) one length equals 1.5 lbs.
These weight-to-distance equivalents are by no means 100 per cent exact but they still provide a good guide in helping to assess the merits of the racehorse. They will, for example, be altered by extreme ground conditions. The handicapper would be fully entitled to use the 3lbs per length over 5 furlongs on fast ground but it would almost certainly be inaccurate to use the same equivalent if the ground was very soft or heavy. He may choose to use 2lbs or even 1.5lbs per length in the latter case. This would be up to the individual concerned and he would base his decision on previous similar extreme conditions, with possible reference to average race times.
Distance
Pounds per Length
5f (1,000 metres)
3
6f (1,200 metres)
2.5
7f-9f (1,400-1,800 metres)
2
10-12f (2,000-2,400 metres)
1.5
12f plus (2,400 metres plus)
1
In flat handicaps the higher weights dont have any more effect than lighter weights (the difference between 9st & 10st is the same as 8st & 9st.
The weights carried are all as a result of the horse producing a performance that merited that rating. In other words all horses are capable of running to their handicap. So in order to win a hcp what you want is a horse who is going to run better than his rating. Which is why horses with few hcp runs win most hcps. What you want is an improver - someone who is better than have shown. You also need as many factors as possible in you favour (Draw, Going, Distance, Jockey, Track, Stable in form, Horse at his peak, and the class of horses he is running againt)
Factors affecting results
When assessing riders on the way up it is often a good idea to spend a period of time focusing on their tactical as well as riding abilities. Cardinal sins in my book, are how many times they get involved a disputed battle for the lead, rather than sit passively outside a leader, how deep they are on the track, do they look for cover and how do they look to overcome tricky draws.
The battle for the lead issue revolves around what I call the ‘David Bedford’ syndrome. Bedford used to run world class times in lower grade athletics meets where he was out on his own competing only against the clock. Stick him in a world class field however and even though his times were competitive if he was taken on for the lead it all went pear shaped. It was as if as well as the physical energy expended in running at a certain speed there was also a mental drain if he was forced to ‘race’ from an early stage as opposed to getting into a nice unpestered rhythm. I have always felt this applies to horses who even if they are going at the same physical speed seem to find a disputed lead far more draining than an uncontested one. Jockeys who realise this and don’t get hooked up in battles for the lead but instead adopt a passive stance which helps tilt the advantage in favour of the leaders, are clearly sound tactically rather than those who when given instructions to lead will press on to fulfill those orders even if they end up setting up for the closers.
The inside rail at Southwell is on e off the clearest advantages of track bias that is present on a regular basis and hence it is easy to measure riders against. Some jockeys however are capable of spotting more subtle nuances which may favour front runners if the rail is good or closers if the centre is quicker. The ability to flex tactics to capitalise on this is also a handy asset for the tactically astute rider.
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